Wednesday, March 26, 2008

eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY): Qtr tracking well

We have two firms out with positive comments on eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) saying qtr is tracking well:

- Citigroup saying that to date they have tracked 574MM Total Core listings consisting of 196MM U.S. listings and 378MM Int'l listings. Combined with the estimated 89MM store listings we have tracked QTD, they estimate Total listings growth improved to up 13% Y/Y, tracking ahead of Citi's Q1:08 estimate of 11% Y/Y.

- Jefferies notes eBay's February pricing tweaks are having positive effects on 1Q results, with 1Q listings pointing to a healthy 9% Y/Y growth and translating into results likely at the higher-end of expectations. Withthe stock's pullback, EBAY is the cheapest among large cap. Internets, providing an attractive risk/reward profile.

Based on their weekly tracking of eBay listings WW, they're estimating 630-650M listings for 1Q08 vs. our original projection of 602M (up 9% Y/Y at the mid-point). All else constant, this should result in upside to revenue, EBITDA and PEPS of $81M, $31M and $0.02 for 1Q. Jeffco is raising their estimates to $2.11B, $780.5M and $0.39, respectively. Consensus stands at revenues of $2.05B and PFEPS of $0.39. They are also raising FY08 revenue and PEPS estimates to $8.78B and $1.67 vs. consensus of $8.70B and $1.65.

Reits Buy and $40 tgt.

Notablecalls: That's certainly good news. With the dollar down vs. the euro since management guidance, there's some upside in store from there as well.

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