Friday, August 01, 2008

Elan (NYSE:ELN): PML near term pain could yield long term Tysabri gain - Leerink

- Leerink Swann is back with some comments on Elan (NYSE:ELN) following yesterday's PML related sell-off:

- Bottom Line: Report of two newly confirmed cases of PML in MS patients treated with Tysabri are likely to create significant volatility in BIIB and ELN stocks today. But they believe the occurrence could create a positive long-term environment for the drug by demonstrating successful intervention using plasmapharesis (PLEX, initial details of which were presented at ECTRIMS in October 2007).

The patients who developed PML were treated in Europe, a region for which a TOUCH program has not been established. A MEDACorp MS consultant noted to the firm last night that the lack of confirmed cases of PML in the U.S. may suggest that the RiskMAP is effective. As of the end of 2Q:08, BIIB and ELN reported that 17,800 patients were being treated with Tysabri in the U.S. and 13,400 internationally.

They believe it highly unlikely that the FDA would remove Tysabri from the market once again following these latest cases of PML for reasons that include the fact that no confirmed cases have occurred in the U.S. and they suspect the Agency has gained comfort that the TOUCH program is working.

Second, they note comments made by Dr. Russ Katz, Director of the Division of Neurology Products at the March 2006 FDA advisory panel where it was recommended that Tysabri be reintroduced into the U.S. market. Prior to the start of the panel, Dr. Katz said "It is absolutely critical to state at this point that if marketing is permitted, we fully expect that additional cases of PML, many likely to be fatal, will occur."

Key will be whether the recent incidences of PML will impede growth in Europe or perhaps contract usage and if physicians in the U.S. will discontinue treatment or at least not initiate treatment in new patients.

Notablecalls: I have bought some ELN for my L-T investing acccount here around $11. I see the PML problem as a minor issue. The only risk here are the big funds that may be dumping the stock over the next couple of weeks due to risk-management issues.

On the valuation side, ELN's now dirt cheap. I suggest you ignore the media ga-ga and start buying some.

Long ELN


franklymydear said...

Considering this was an "actionable call" at 21 2 days ago, I guess it is even more actionable 11. Of course, you will forget the first part of the equation and consider yourself a genius when the stock moves "up" 50% from here. Great call.....

aztecs99 said...

This is a horrendous call, even worse from the other day. I've noticed you put stuff out on names that drop hard, trying to find low risk entries. Unfortunately, these things drop..and you don't see a shift in trend. Didn't u see the big volume on wed? institutions were selling HARD then. in case you didn't know, ELN hit 2.25 in early 2005 when this PML stuff hit the mkt.

Completely irresponsible...some good stuff here, MOSTLY knife-catching plays. Didn't you know we are in a BEAR MARKET?

Sorry for anyone who lost $$$$ on this piss poor trade.

notablecalls said...

From 21 it bounced almost 2 pts. For a trader a 2 pts gain on a 20 dollar stock is profit oppy.

Plus, I was commenting on the Alzheimer's issue and was unaware (like everyone else) of the PML.

But hey, if you consider my stuff bad then just skip it.

I dont get paid for doing this.

aztecs99 said...

Trying to put positive spin on a horrendous pick? It bounced from 21 to nearly 23 for LESS than an hour!!! In the first 30 minutes the stock traded 15 million shares, and you're supposed to convince me that you bought it after this teardown and sold it 30 mins later for maybe a 2 pt gain? You've got to be joking! The fact is, you got people into a name that was completely BROKEN. Look, I'm no saint either...but to say you would BUY more today and to tell about it...horrible. You may get some on a deadcat a broken clock is right twice a day, but if you bought at 11 as you said, you're down 10%....just miserable here, and you're probably going to be selling it at 7 or lower.

Derek said...

Made good money on your ideas. Don't let these newbies get the best. Guess they missed your great SGP call awhile back.

aztecs99 said...

Last month, you said BIIB was a buy...on the same day, you said WFC would trade back to 23-24. BOTH VERY WRONG CALLS. How about a mea culpa? Sure, you can get a few right...but for God's sakes, change the way you're looking at things! For shit's sake, the FNM/FRE calls were preposterous! IT'S A BEAR 'FREAKIN' MARKET!!! As an aside, your sell calls were pretty decent.

As for SGP...that was a good call...i'll give you that one.

notablecalls said...


Think it hit 21 around 9 am, so yes 2 pt gain in less than an hr.

NC is for traders. Im sure a lot of buy & hold type of mkt participants read the blog but my main focus is on trading.

The weirdest thing about the mkt is that you can be right and still lose money trading. And vice versa.

I ended up being wrong regarding the stock retracing at least some of the 10 pt loss but ended up making money on it anyway. So did many other NCN members.

Im sorry if you lost money on ELN but whining about it does not make you a better trader on my book.

Trading is not about being right, its about making dough.

AND yes, Im down 10% on my l-t ELN holding. So what? I'll buy more when it drops. This selling has nothing to do with valuation and everything with risk management stops being hit at funds. I suggest you take advantage of it as I feel the stock will be going back to 13-14 range IF Tysabri sales doesnt take a 50% haircut.

Oh and stop whining. I hate whiners. Always have.

notablecalls said...


I think your problem here is that youre looking at my calls as an investor and not as a trader.

The investor (especially the l-t kind, not talking about 1-2 mts swings here) HAS to be right about his/her thesis to make money.

The trader on the other hand has to merely bet on the reactions of other mkt participants.

Both can yield big profits but to consistently make money on the mkt one if much better off as a trader.

Do spend some time thinking about what I just said. Ive been in this game for a long time and seen a lot what the mkts can offer (and take!).

Good luck,


brian said...

Welcome to the new band of clowns that have entered the stock market. If you dont hit 100% of your calls, you are obviously a moron, you don't know what your doing, and every stock that goes down will never bounce because "The big boys manipulate everything, and I cant win".

This blogger gave his mea culpa a month or so ago over some shitty calls. I love it when someone grows a set and backs a call down a mile like ELN. It's called conviction. And it's stuff thats way over the head of some of these posters.

NC, you owe no one apologies. Some of us can read beyond a chart.

cramermutebutton said...

Making money in the market is about DISCIPLINE. Discipline trumps conviction every time. All NC can do is give you the idea. The Discpiline part of the equation is up to YOU. If you have EVER bought a stock that has fallen out of bed you would know to run TIGHT STOPS!! the friggin thing jacked up 2 points by 9am.. put in a stop and when it gets hit.. you are done for the day.. shut down your system and go to the beach.. you did good.

lowly habitat said...

this noteable calls guy has a real ego trip dip buy everytime a drug stock falls. another "expanding" blowup was a few months ago recommending ONXX.
How long will you continue to destory other people's capital until the karma catchs up with you???????

franklymydear said...

Thanks for showing just a hair of humility in your responses in this thread. Of course one has to be a big boy to play and one has to take responsibility for investment decisions, no matter whose ideas they may have been based on. I don't like whiners either. But I also don't like how you and most market "experts" don't take responsibility for bad calls, and always claim that you traded everything just perfectly and made lots of money. Of course, everyone else who listened to what you said is "stupid" for not having known exactly when to sell a stock that went down 50% immediately after you recommended it. I have made money on several of your calls, but you have to acknowledge that you have published some really bad ones. How about "Sorry guys--looks like a blew this one!"

notablecalls said...


stockmaven said...

I would not have even bothered replying to these whining clowns, all this back'n forth is insanity at it's finest.. you owe us NOTHING.. traders will just have to learn, to take FULL respnsibilty for their trades.. you give us your ideas and we then go ahead and deceide how & what to do with it on a given day. Keep up your good work, you are helping lotsa folks make some serious money. And remember guys, a trade is only as good as the one that's trading it.
Yours truly,

fun said...

Guys, you totally forget about money management, position sizing, execution, timing etc. Trading is not about selling a stock that's "bad" and buying a stock that's "good". If you are not good enough at every aspect, you might easily end up in deep losses even if you get good calls.

Plus, one should never rely on information that he does not believe in himself. It's not NC who made up this positive data about ELN and put it into Conviction Buy list. If you didn't notice, his first call was based on Goldman Sachs' note. If you think you are better than GS in trading, why the hell do you read this blog anyway?

Hariram Maneri said...

As Stockmaven nicely puts it, why even bother replying to these clowns? Its funny that these ppl are talking as if this is some kind of a paid website and you owe them something for picks gone wrong..Thanks for sharing with us all these analysts' comments and keep up the good work..