Thursday, December 18, 2008

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC): Downgraded to Underperform, $11 tgt at Jeffco

Jefferies' Semicondutor team is out with some pretty nasty downgrades on almost all of the largest players in the space:

WHAT WE KNOW
- Unlike prior downturns we entered with relatively lean inventories in most end markets.
- Q4 has gotten worse for everyone – significantly below prior guidance.
- Q1 visibility is AWFUL and likely not to improve before earnings calls given the holiday shutdowns

JEFFERIES RECOMMENDATION – WHEN TO OWN SEMIS AND WHAT TO OWN
- Don't get fooled by this near-term rally.
- Start buying in mid-February – the first leg of the cyclical upturn will
rise all tides.
- 2nd Leg of the upturn – what to own and what not own;
- What to own - Broadcom, NetLogic, Qualcomm, Silicon Labs, and
Xilinx.
- What not to own - AMD, Cypress, Intersil, National Semi, Silicon
Image, Texas Instruments, and Zoran.

For example they are downgrading Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) to Underperform from Buy while lowering their tgt to $11 from $26.

They recommend investors sell shares as Intel is likely to experience multiple compression as 1) the PC market slows due to desktop declines and slowing laptop growth, 2) a mix shift to the low-end in the PC market pressures MPU ASPs, and 3) other efforts in new end markets disappoint. Reducing CY09 EPS estimate to $0.76 (from $1.45).

$11.00 PT is based on 1.5x '09 EV/Rev or 15x CY09 EPS (inline with peers).

Notablecalls: Phew..are they on mushrooms or are they for real? Regardless of their choice in drugs I suspect INTC is going sub-$15 today. Nasty.