Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Calls of Note Part 5

- Banc of America is cutting their 2007 EPS estimate on ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) from $2.01 to $1.82. They are now assuming ASML will ship 35-40 immersion lithography systems in 2007 versus prior estimate of 45-50. Firm thinks the total market will remain in the 65-70 range. They are now assuming Nikon will ship somewhere in the 30 range versus prior estimate of 20.

Nikon's immersion tool has shown good success to date at Toshiba in the NAND flash process development. BAC expects Nikon to win the lion's share of the production orders this year at Toshiba; they estimate 15. Firm expects ASML to place a couple of tools at Toshiba

They suspect that Nikon's success is causing others chip makers including Samsung to look more carefully at the Nikon tool. Expects most of the upside in revised Nikon shipments will come from development tools rather than production.

Total CY07 immersion forecast remains the same; no impact on CYMI. Lowering target price to $30 (from $32). Maintains Neutral.

Notablecalls: Had there not been such a sell-off yesterday, I'd call this one actionable.

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