Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Calls of Note Part 1

- Piper Jaffray is out with an interesting note on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) saying the Vista launch could prove to be both positive and negative for Apple. Firm's survey indicates that Vista is driving a PC refresh cycle, which could impact Mac market share in the March quarter. But they also believe that widespread computer upgrades could lead consumers to evaluate their options, which may allow Apple to sway buyers toward the Mac platform. Long term, the firm is confident that Mac market share will rise; as the PC market shifts toward portables, Apple's market share will benefit from higher share in this category.

Due to pent-up demand for PCs with Vista pre-installed, the firm anticipates a spike in PC sales during the Mar-07 quarter, which could put downward pressure on Mac market share. They also anticipate a general increase in computer sales, including Macs, as customers consider several options for their computer purchase. More precisely, the firm expects Mac market share to decline from 2.5% in December to 2.3% in March. Historically, from Dec-04 to Mar-05, Mac units increased by 2.3% and the market share increased by 0.3%. During the Intel transition, from Dec-05 to Mar-06 Mac units fell by 11.3% and market share was flat. Overall, the firm is confident that Apple will gain share in CY07 despite the Vista-related refresh cycle.

The firm surveyed 50 Best Buy stores around the country and found that Vista sales have not met expectations, but PC sales have risen since Vista's launch.

Maintains Outperform and $124 tgt.

Notablecalls: So, the iPod's aren't selling too well because everyone is waiting for the iPhone. Now it looks like the Mac's aren't selling because of the Vista launch. While I think the recent decline in AAPL's stock has discounted some of this, I suspect the call from Piper may cause some additional pessimism. We may even see some est cuts over the next weeks.


Tommo_UK said...
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Tommo_UK said...

"So, the iPod's aren't selling too well because everyone is waiting for the iPhone" - who said that? Noteable calls says this as if its a fact, when it is nothing of the kind, and with iPods still dominating the "best sellers" charts - including the full screen video iPod. I calll "BS" on Noteablecalls' call.

In addition, its total rubbish to say "Macs aren't selling too well" just because PC sales may be getting an artificial boost from Vista sales. Just because there are more PCs sold in a period does not mean FEWER Macs get sold.. it just means overall sales of computers will likely rise. Anyone switching to Mac isn't going to be swayed by Vista; they'll be buying a Mac anyway. And anyone who was waiting for Vista obviously isn't a Mac buyer, so there's no negative impact on Mac sales there either.

So while Mac market SHARE may dip slightly for a quarter as PC sales growth rises, there's no reason to believe that Mac sales GROWTH need do the same.

Noteablecalls have been pretty bearish on AAPL recently, and this is more of the same, FUD-laden skewed, ill-considered garbage. "Estimates cuts?" Notablecalls is insane... analysts are raising estimates because they're obviously too low, by at least 20% and more likely 30%. Estimates will be rising, not falling, going into the Q2 report.

Tommo_UK said...

#1 selling MP3 player at : 30GB VIDEO iPod

.. yeah, loads of people waiting for the iPhone there.. nobody's buying video iPods huh?

#2 selling MP3 player at Oh look! It's the 80GB VIDEO iPod

Oh my! Nobody's buying iPods huh? Heavens help us...

#3-5 are all iPods too...

In fact 13 of the top 20 MP3 players at are.. yes, iPods.

Noteablecalls - not so noteable after all.

notablecalls said...


hope you sold early.