Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Calls of Note Part 4

Merrill Lynch is raising their price objective on Biomarin Pharma (NASDAQ:BMRN) stock to $25 from $19 for four reasons: 1) higher estimates for Phenoptin in the treatment of phenylketonuria (PKU); 2) higher peak sale estimates for Naglazyme; 3)multiple shots on goal for the BH4 program and 4) attractive acquisition value. BioMarin expressed great confidence in its products and pipeline programs at the recent Merrill conference and at a dinner they hosted for management. Reiterate Buy.

Firm raised their Phenoptin peak U.S. sales estimate to $200mn from $135mn based on demonstrated efficacy, the lack of treatments for PKU and BMRN's commercial expertise in orphan drugs. BioMarin expects to file an NDA for Phenoptin in mild to moderate PKU in 2Q07, and assuming 6-month priority review, they expect approval by YE07/early'08.

They raised peak sale estimate for Naglazyme to $240mn from $175mn in the treatment of MPS VI. Firm believes estimates were conservative and that the drug could track along a similar trajectory to that of Aldurazyme.

With potentially 3 products and profitability in '08 and active R&D in cardiovascular disease, BMRN could make an attractive acquisition candidate.

Notablecalls: Not actionable but good to know category. MLCO's a bit late with their est raises.

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