Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Calls of Note Part 3

- ThinkEquity comments on National Semi (NYSE:NSM) following warning saying that while they believe orders at NSM have picked up recently, they believe the upturn is modest compared to improvements at Maxim and Texas Instruments. Reasons for a more-protracted inventory adjustment at NSM include the company's high exposure to wireless analog ICs (MXIM and TXN's analog businesses are more diversified), and a sell-in revenue recognition policy which leaves NSM's guidance more vulnerable to volatility in distribution order patterns.

NSM stated that the shortfall for revenues was due largely to weaker-than-expected orders from distributors over the holiday period. Firm believes distributors continued to take down inventory in December, evidenced by SIA data and negative commentary about December from competitors. In their view, weakness in December is broadly known.

They believe ADI is likely to trade down on the NSM pre-announcement. Analog Devices is on a January quarter with a looming earnings report on March 8, and is seen as a share loser in China, where its DSPs are used in wireless handsets. Furthermore, firm's checks indicate ADI has been aggressive in its efforts to retain market share for analog ICs. While Maxim is scheduled to report earnings on February 7, they believe its shares will see limited negative impact on the NSM pre-announcement having previously traded down on Linear Technology's weak CQ1 outlook.

Firm continues to believe bellwether high performance analog is turning a corner.

Notablecalls: Not actionable but good to know category.

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