Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Calls of Note Part 4

- FBR is lowering their ests on Safenet (NASDAQ:SFNT) noting that while the co ocntinues to execute judiciously on its fertile classified opportunity (Crypto Mod), they believe that the company is still seeing much softness in its commercial business, which represents 20%-25% of revenues in a given quarter. From a product perspective, the commercial business is aimed at both the high-speed communication (SONET encryptors) and borderless divisions.

Although the company is judiciously trying to turn around this domestic business from both product and sales strategies, they believe the transition period could take a bit longer than the firm was previously expecting, as it appears the new line of encryption technology will take some time to gain more widespread customer adoption.

For 2006, to reflect weaker than anticipated commercial business and higher G&A expenses, they are lowering estimates to $279.1 million and $1.23, versus previous estimates of $285.9 million and $1.34, respectively. For 2007, new estimates are $306.1 million and $1.53, versus prior estimates of $316.8 million and $1.70, respectively. Target goes to $18 from $20. Maintains Mkt Perform.

Notablecalls: I think we will see some downside in SFNT over the coming days.

- FBR is cautious on Check Point Software (NASDAQ:CHKP) saying that based on their channel checks, they believe CHKP is seeing a tougher environment inking deal flow than previously expected. While the company continues to generate nice cash flow, repurchase shares, and focus on branching out its core product focus, unfortunately, in the near term, the firm believes CHKP will be facing a very bumpy road. As a result, they are lowering estimates for the June quarter, as well as bringing down the bar for 2006 and 2007.

For 2Q06 (June), they are lowering total revenue and pro forma estimates to $139 million and $0.32 vs. prior estimates of $141 million and $0.33, respectively. For 2006, they are lowering estimates to $580 million and $1.36 vs. prior estimates of $590 million and $1.39. For 2007, new estimates are $626 million and $1.44 vs. prior estimates of $650 million and $1.47. Tgt goes to $19 from $21.

Notablecalls: Not actionable but good to know category. CHKP has gotten hit already.

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