Saturday, July 08, 2006

Notablecalls - Paperstand - Barron's

Barron's discusses Lions Gate (LGF), saying that through earnings slumped last year, free cash flow has been growing strongly. The shares could climb 30% in the next 12-18 mo's.

According to the Barron's, after a strong run, the General Dynamics (GD) shares are still cheaper than its peers'. With a lightly more generous multiple and small earnings gain, the stock could rise more than 25%.

Barron's suggests that investors who can weather risk should consider insurers' shares. Analysts believe insurers could top earnings ests, and see double-digit stock gains, if the storm season proves mild. Insurers mentioned include: ALL, ACE, IPCR, MRH, RNR, AXS, MXRE, AHL, ENH, PTP and XL.

According to the Barron's in an Apr. 18. conference call of Emmis Comm. (EMMS), CEO Jeff Smulyan exuded: "I'm remarkably upbeat in spite of the mkt, which clearly doesn't look very good." Regarding private-mkt values for radio stations, Smulyan said, "The reality is, what we are seeing is mid-teens valuation for really good asset holdings everybody agrees we had the best assets in the business." Wall Street apparently wasn't convinced. The shares swooned from $15 to $12 the day. Three weeks later, Smulyan filed an offer to take Emmis private at 15.25. At Emmis, the CEO owns 13.7% of the co, but controls 60.4% of their votes through superior Class B shares. Article suggests that the break-up value of the co is close to $30 a share.

According to the Barron's, AMS International (ASMI) shares have bounced around since Mellon HBV Alternative Strategies, an $800m NY-based hedge fund and a 6.1% shareholder, proposed the breakup in Dec. Shareholders have a shot at benefiting no matter which side triumphs. Says Gary Hsueh of CIBC: "Short term, if the activists win, shareholders will have the immediate benefit of the dividend, while if mgmt carries the day and the co stays the course, there's considerable upside in the stock." Hsueh believes the ADRs can hit 25 in the next 12-18 months, and move as high as 31 over the next 2-3 years.

Barron's discusses Business Objects (BOBJ) positively, saying that if CEO does not fix problems fast, the co could find itself squarely in some other co's sights.

Follow up section reviews General Motors (GM) and Vonage (VG) articles. On GM Barron's suggests that past failed alliances should make GM's board and major stockholders ponder. On Vonage, article says, that the story just gets uglier and uglier.

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