Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Calls of Note Part 2

- Baird recommends Beacon Roofing Suppl (NASDAQ:BECN) as they believe a 3QF06 EPS miss is already factored in. BECN has fallen nearly 30% from its highs and massive short position. BECN trades at less than 10x EV/C2006E EBITDA, while firm's $31 price target represents 13x, without any new acquisitions. No changes to estimates, although the shares appear to be currently valued as though the company will miss 3QF06 by a wide margin, with lower forward estimates. Residential construction trends remain negative, but non-residential and replacement demand should be steady, and they strongly believe in the secular growth story.

From current levels, the firm believes the stock could rise even on a bad earnings report due to the overwhelming short position; nearly 10 million shares or 22% of the float as of June 15. This represents over 17 days to cover based on the stock's 3-month average daily volume. Short interest is up 82% in the past month (+4.4 million shares) and is up 148% in the past 3 months (+5.9 million shares).

Notablecalls: Not actionable but good to know category.

- UBS defends Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) saying they attribute recent weakness to market speculation on push-outs of next-generation Apple iPod platforms and NAND Spot price market weakness that extended from late June into early July. While acknowledging this puts firm's near-term SNDK expectations at risk, they continue to to favor SNDK and the exposure it affords to 3G/multimedia handset demand.

Firm's own checks with North American component suppliers and recent UBS Asia tech team checks has indicated no changes in AAPL iPod development activities, and they thus believe new NAND-based MP3/PMP players are likely still on track for launch a pre-holiday launch at a time of AAPL choosing.

Maintains Buy and $70 tgt.

Notablecalls: Not actionable but good to know category.

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