Red Robin Gourmet (NASDAQ:RRGB): Bounce play?

Red Robin Gourmet (NASDAQ:RRGB) is getting some defending comments from couple of firms:

- Jefferies notes RRGB reported 1Q08 EPS of $0.43, well short of the $0.50 Street estimate – with most sell-siders, including them, being caught off guard by greater than expected food costs and less than expected G&A leverage. Food cost pressure partially explained by sales mix shift and low 1Q07 food cost comparison. G&A pressure the result of advertising expense timing with an equal beneficial offset coming in 2Q08. With RRGB reiterating its full-year EPS guidance range (net of $0.04 acquisition accretion), Street numbers are likely headed up over balance of year offsetting the 1Q EPS shortfall on full-year basis. jeffco is sticking with theri 2008 EPS estimate of $2.13 as they raised EPS estimates last week to account for the acquisition accretion.

With shares up almost 20% over the last 4 weeks– the in-line EPS guidance numbers and news of housing market headwinds will likely result in RRGB shares giving back a sizeable chunk of that move today. Key tenet of their Buy thesis remains intact and that is that with recent and expected earnings now among the most stable in the growth sector, they expect RRGB's relative fundamental strength in coming quarters to drive merit-based multiple expansion.

Reits Buy and $46 tgt.

- Morgan Stanley notes 1Q EPS fell well short of their mark ($0.43 vs $0.51), but the miss was entirely related to costs. Offsetting this, sales exceeded firm's expectations with comps up an industry leading 3.9%. RRGB raised annual guidance by $0.04 to account for a franchise
acquisition. While this back end loads 2008 EPS, they think it’s feasible based on current trends and increased pricing. With estimates essentially intact and valuation among lowest of peers, MSCO remains buyers of RRGB.

Reits Overweight and $46 tgt

Notablecalls: RRGB continues to be an analyst darling here & I think will provide a bounce opportunity today. The only question here is where to start scaling in. My gut tells me sub-$36 level is where I wanna start w/ $35 already representing a 'screaming buy' point.

The first miss is almost always forgiven. RRGB has a lot of West Coast exposure, so considering that the qtr was still fine.

Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK): Davenport reits Strong Buy

Davenport reits Strong Buy on Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) saying the sell-off on CEO comments appears to be overdone. SNDK shares sold off aggressively yesterday (taking the broader market with them) following comments by CEO Eli Harari at a technology conference that U.S. memory card sales were “relatively soft” in April and demand was similar to what the company experienced during 1Q’08. Dr. Harari also voiced his belief that high energy prices are likely having some impact on US consumer spending.

Firm ntoes they are surprised by the magnitude of the market’s reaction (down $2.42 or 7.5%) to these comments as they are in-line with the tone management struck during its 1Q’08 conference call on April 17th when they suggested that U.S. consumer weakness would continue throughout the balance of the month. Further, Dr. Harari indicated that SNDK’s business remains robust outside the US, as was the case in 1Q’08 when non-US sales powered the company to ~5% revenue upside versus consensus despite US weakness. Finally, as was stated during the conference, SNDK’s 2Q performance is generally heavily back-end loaded with the vast majority of the company’s 2Q performance yet to be
recorded.

More importantly, SNDK indicated that it continues to expect business conditions to improve during the second half of the year as a more benign pricing environment and seasonal strength combine for much improved 2H results.

Notablecalls: SNDK's a buy here at $29 and change. See below.

Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK): Buying opportunity has emerged - Citigroup

Citigroup is out with a pretty brilliant defense on Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) noting the shares fell 7.5% after a morning conference presentation by CEO Eli Harari, a drag on the SOXX. Citi's review of broader NAND data suggests a buying opportunity has emerged.

The typically upbeat Harari was noticeably restrained. That said, he indicated Europe remains strong (44% of sls), and left OEM sales un-addressed (all geos; 42% of sls).

Firm notes that understandably they braced for weak April US retail sell through data (cards+drives+MP3 players) in the afternoon's NPD release. However, we found SNDK bit growth was just 300 bps below seasonal (helped by easy comp) while ASPs were actually 300 bps better than seasonal. Separately, theyconfirmed with SNDK that its Europe and Asia market share trends are firm, the OEM biz solid. Firm concludes SNDK is likely working to keep Street expectations in check, in particular as: 1) much of the Mom's/Prom's/Dad's/Grads selling season lies ahead, and 2) some competitors have recently raised 2Q GM ests (2Q08 to be the trough). Overall, they are comfortable with their 2Q08, 3Q08 and 2008 ests.

While end demand risks persist, the body of evidence Citi sees continues to point
toward steadily firming fundamentals into and through 3Q08.

They think positive EPS revision catalysts remain in play in July through October and on a target of $35, but with upside to $40 if multiples inflate seasonally.

Reits Buy.

Notablecalls: I think Citi is doing the right thing here defending SNDK. What we saw yesterday was just profit taking following the recent run (can't blame the bold ones who bought the stock in the low 20's taking some of it off the table). Citi has done a good job covering SNDK recently and I think the stock is a bounce candidate here.

For the record, Lazard and JPM are somewhat cautious on SNDK this AM. - fyi only.

The stock's a buy below $30.

Early morning tidbits: SLB, WGOV, COF

- Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB): Lehman raises price tgt to $142 from $120. (good chart)

- Woodward Governor (NASDAQ:WGOV): Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird. (stock has had a good run recently and Baird's tgt stands at $40. They would be buyers in the low 30's. Likely a short above $38. Remember, Baird downgrades have historically been among the best movers).

- Oppemheimer's Meredith Whitney is out neg on the financials again. Capital One (NYSE:COF) is getting its ests slashed. No surprise there, though.

NC

China Digital TV (NYSE:STV): Buy the dip - Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is positive on China Digital TV (NYSE:STV) noting the stock stock price dropped 10%+ post its 1Q08 result – a market overreaction in firm's view. They see CDTV as a ‘proxy’ for China’s digital cable TV market, one of the fastest-growing consumer sectors in China (digital cable TV homes in China may grow at a 5-year CAGR of 45% from 2007-2012).

Notably, some rivals offer smart cards at only half of CDTV’s price. Yet on firm's observation, they are barely breakeven and may soon be squeezed out of the market if they cannot capture a meaningful market share.

Investors are currently paying only ~US$1bn for CDTV, which owns half of the digital smart card market in China, a nation that hosts one-third of the global cable TV viewers and whose cable TV ARPU (average revenue per user) only amounts to 2-3% of the level in the US. 3

Morgan Stanley's DCF-based fair value of US$37 per share implies over 100% upside.

Reits Overweight.

Notablecalls: STV looks like it wants to bounce. Morgan Stanley provides a reason to buy. I expect it to trade over $18 level today.

Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO): Shares likely to trade lower on today's new - Jefferies

Jefferies comments on Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) noting that over the week-end, Microsoft issued a press release stating that "it is considering and has raised with Yahoo! an alternative that would involve a transaction with Yahoo! but not an acquisition of all of Yahoo!" Yahoo! quickly followed up with its own press release confirming the talks with Microsoft and stating that the board remains open to any and all transactions that maximize shareholder value.

This is clearly not what Mr. Icahn and other hedge fund managers who have been accumulating Yahoo! shares recently wanted to hear as it makes, in their opinion, an outright and imminent MSFT purchase of Yahoo! less likely (although not impossible!).

The obvious question is what kind of transaction could the two companies be contemplating? While they have kept silent on the issue, an agreement could be along the following two areas:

1. Yahoo! could outsource a piece of its search business to MSFT.

2. Yahoo! and Microsoft could combine their display ad businesses to create the #1 Player

Overall, MSFT/YHOO's statements over the week-end go against Mr. Icahn's plans as they make an outright and imminent MSFT purchase of Yahoo! less likely (although not impossible!). Jefferies believes Yahoo! shares are likely to trade lower on this news today.

Notablecalls: Can't believe YHOO is still trading above Friday's close in pre-mkt! Going lower.

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM): 5 Reasons To Own Qualcomm - Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer is out with a pretty big call on Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) saying they are bullish on the stock and see several reasons to buy the shares. Actually, there are 5 of them:

1) First, OpCo sees strong support for their FY09 estimate of $2.42 and meaningful upside as the 3G smart-phone arms race escalates with RIM and Apple joining the fray.

2) Legal conflict pushing toward resolution: In firm's opinion, the Nokia licensing situation remains the main point of uncertainty for QCOM. They view the July Delaware case as a turning point and potential catalyst for a resolution within the next year. Firm expects the Broadcom legal overhang to be lifted by year-end as the workarounds are implemented.

3) Third, analysis of large growth funds suggests most are on the sidelines. As QCOM's earnings reaccelerate, more will have to add to positions. Firm believes as much as $1.8B could flow into the name as a result.

4) With an improving legal front, strong smart-phone contribution and a return to earnings growth post stripping out Nokia, they see a case where historical P/E multiples of 23x can be supported. OpCo is adjusting their price target accordingly, using a 23x P/E multiple on our 2009 earnings estimate of $2.42 yielding a $56 price target (up from $52)

5) With QCOM still active on the buyback front we could see another ~$0.02 of accretion if the company exhausts the nearly $2B left on its current plan.

Notablecalls: Take a look at QCOM chart- the stock is on a verge of a major break-out. Opco's Ittai Kidron is out with a kick-arse call & will give the stock the needed push higher. QCOM's a keeper here, for sure.

Ctrip.com (NASDAQ:CTRP): Encountering Turbulence but Maintaining Buy - Citigroup

Citigroup comments on Ctrip.com (NASDAQ:CTRP) following earnings out last night saying they recommend taking advantage of any weakness as a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Though Ctrip's guidance has historically been conservative, the company lowered rev YoY growth guidance to "30% for 2Q," but on the call, re-affirmed FY08 guidance of 35%. This lower guidance is primarily attributed to the earthquake in Sichuan, which has impacted travel to the province and dampened overall travel sentiment.

Addressing recent concerns over deteriorating domestic traffic YoY growth from the Big 3 Chinese airlines, with YoY growth slowing to 3.9% in March and 3.7% in April, the firm stresses that Ctrip continues to outpace the market due to market share gains from local agencies, with air ticketing revs up 68% YoY vs. the market up 10% in 1Q.

Reits Buy and $78 tgt.

Notablecalls: I feel CTRP represents a pretty solid bounce candidate. The co continues to execute in the midst of a perfect storm (snowstorms, earthquake in Sichuan, upcoming Olympics, dampening overall demand).

The stock will get hit today but I will be buying it starting from $57 (long here some but willing to avrg down) as I feel there is a lot of inst. buy interest in the name.

Just a hiccup.

Zimmer Holdings (NYSE:ZMH): Baird downgrade should push the stock down today

Baird is lowering their rating on Zimmer Holdings (NYSE:ZMH) to Neutral from Outperform as they believe near-term financial impact of Durom hip cup issue could prove meaningful and, even if cup design is eventually vindicated, hip market share loss could continue/potentially accelerate over next 12-24+ months. As such, they believe potential turnaround at ZMH has been pushed to 2010 or beyond and that risk to '08/'09 EPS consensus now exists.

If the use of Durom falls off as we suspect it might, firm's checks suggest as much as 5-10% of ZMH's worldwide hip business could be lost. And because large diameter metal heads are paired with Durom cup, they believe ZMH would also lose one of the most rapidly growing constructs in its hip portfolio near-term.

All in, Baird believes this issue could cause ZMH's hip business to trend relatively flat over the next 12-18 months and believes lost hip revenues and lack of overhead absorption if production is shut down could conservatively reduce '08 and '09 EPS projections to $4.08 and $4.60, respectively, vs. $4.15 and $4.76 previously (investigation costs, costs if recall occurs, etc. could impact even more).

Target is lowered to $74 from $85.

Notablecalls: This is a pretty nasty downgrade from Baird. I suspect the stock will go below $65 level today, thus offering a short-selling oppy early on. Several firms have been defending ZMH lately but Baird's comments should give the buyers some reason to rethink their thesis.

eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY): Removed from Top Picks list at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray is removing eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) from their Top Internet Picks list and lowering tgt to $38 from $40 after their checks showed U.S. GMV meaningfully slowed in April. Firm is lowering 2Q U.S. marketplace growth to 3% y/y vs. previous 8% due to low buyer activity (eBay noted softening buyer activity at the end of Q1 on its Q1 call).

Increasing 2Q int'l marketplace to 18% y/y vs. previous 15%, driven by strength in int'l listings and only modest declines in conversion rates/ASPs. In total, only slightly lowering Q2 est - remain above consensus.

Removing as an Internet top pick as weakness in U.S. GMV will likely be a near-term overhang.

Notablecalls: NCN Ugg thinks EBAY will take a dive following these comments. His exact words:

"...The removal of the top-pick, combined with the lowering of their PT to $38 I suspect, will pressure the shares early on.."

Me? I concur. Have learned not to mess with the Ugg!

Smurfit-Stone (NASDAQ:SSCC): Bounce candidate

Deutsche Bank is out with a good call on Smurfit-Stone (NASDAQ:SSCC) & other badly beated down sector names saying recent event may support containerboard prices: 1) an explosion is causing an unexpected outage at a large IP mill 2) the IP/WY deal received quick regulatory approval. Without that IP mill, the effective linerboard operating rate is near practical capacity. At the same time, the rapid approval of the IP/WY deal removes a potential "loose cannon" from the market. Firm notes the loss of IP's Vicksburg mill is a "big deal" - if the mill is out for any extended period of time. Maintains Buy & $15 target on SSCC.

Notablecalls: SSCC represents a very nice bounce candidate here, in my opinion.

Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK): Moving into the seasonal sweet spot - Citigroup

Citigroup says mid-qtr check on Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) fundamentals suggests positive EPS revision pressure is forming, in line w/seasonal norms which in yrs past have been '+' for the stock. Demand risks exist (handset), though CIR thinks rising contract pricing from June to October is a reasonable outlook. SNDK is Citi's mid-cap top pick on contract pricing and EPS revision catalysts.

Since 2003 Street EPS have jumped 22% and 43% in 2Q and 3Q, respectively (shares by 18% and 34%). Firm recalls that contract pricing risks shift to the upside from May to September (back to school and pre-holiday demand), though broader chip industry orders are most benign from June to August. NAND's comparative seasonal strength should augur well for SNDK shares if fundamental and estimate trends emerge in 2Q08/3Q08 as they think possible.

Reits Buy.

Notablecalls: Worth maybe 1pt upside here.

Notable Calls Network (NCN): Cheniere Energy (AMEX:LNG)

Notable Calls Network (NCN) members were offered a superb trading opportunity this morning in shares of Cheniere Energy (AMEX:LNG). Early on I got a heads up from a NCN member saying RBC Capital was out with a major negative call on LNG.

Indeed, RBC was out lowering their rating on LNG to Underperform from Outperform w/ tgt cut to $1 from $20.

According to the firm new liquidity analysis shows that risk to investors far outweigh the gains, at present: ($64)MM cash position by 3/31/2010 from roughly break- even. Therefore, between the lower than expected quarter-end cash position and higher than expected completion cost of CTP, they believe that the liquidity position of Cheniere is no longer sufficient enough to reach early 2010 without substantial externalities helping to bridge the gap. Firm estimated a negative $64MM cash position by 3/31/2010.

They believe term loan holder has incentive to push Cheniere into Chapter 11.

So, RBC was pretty much saying the liquefied natural gas (LNG) project developer was kaput.

I took a quick look at the chart and saw the stock had already taken a big hit falling from $40 to $5 and change in 6 months. Yet, I felt that RBC's call was major enough to push it down even further so, around 8:00 AM ET I issued the following call to all NCN members that were online:

"..Heads up on Cheniere (NYSE:LNG) - RBC Capital downgrading the stock to Underperform & lowering tgt to $1 from $20 basically saying Chap11 is coming. I feel the stock will be trading in the low $4 or even below $4 today. - worth a look - fyi.."


The stock was trading around $5 and change in pre-mkt when I issued the call, giving early NCN members some nice fills. Most of the real action took place at around $4.70.

To my delight & I'm sure to the delight of NCN members the stock plunged right after open to around $3.7 giving us a nice $1+ gain, depending on one's entry. It's not every day one gets to make $1+ profits in $5 stocks, eh?

This is how Notable Calls Network (NCN) works - sharing the flow.


Want to be part of NCN?

It's easy. Just shoot me a brief email that includes a short description of yourself and your AOL nickname.

Please do note that contacts via IM are limited to people with:

- 3+ years of trading experience

- Access to quality research/analyst commentary

- Ability to generate and share (intraday) trading calls

I will not accept contacts from purely technically oriented traders, penny stock fans or people who have less than 3 years of experience in the field.

RUMOUR MILL: American Intl Group (NYSE:AIG)

A great contact just pinged me saying there's a good chance American Intl Group (NYSE:AIG) is going to announce a secondary & a convert tonight.

".. and all I know is I can buy as much stock as I want on the secondary. Never a good sign. Wouldn't shock me if they priced it below $39.."

So you know..

PS: Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy this AM.

Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI): Stock could be worth $11 - Citigroup

Citigroup is out with a pretty huge call on Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI) saying that despite widespread negative sentiment on BBI's proposed acquisition of CC, they believe the potential deal fits with management's current strategy and see compelling reasons for the merger.

They believe it is key to realize that a BBI-owned CC will likely look very different than today as BBI integrates CC stores into its restructuring plans (including the potential addition of beverage & gaming lounges).

otential for Meaningful Synergies - Successful integration of CC would likely drive revenue and cost synergies. Citi's conservative estimates, which assume only 2% revenue synergies and modest cost savings, point to incremental EBITDA of $433 mil in 2008 and $571 mil in 2009.

hat's the Stock Worth- - Applying pro forma estimates to a 4x '10 EV/EBITDA target multiple suggests BBI could be worth over $8/share (in-line with current target price). However, successful execution of the deal would likely drive investors to assign a valuation to BBI that is more in-line with other retailers (currently 5.1x), which points to the stock being worth almost $11.

Reits Buy and $8 tgt.

Notablecalls: I expect the stock trade close to the $3 level today. This is certainly an out-of-consensus call and will generate ample interest among traders and inst. investors.

Synchronoss (NASDAQ:SNCR): Actionable Call Alert 2

Goldman Sachs out positive on Synchronoss (NASDAQ:SNCR) following meetings with co's management. Firm says they came away with greater clarity on the company's approach to its revised 2008 expectations. They believe management has a strong appreciation of its need to rebuild credibility with the investment community after two quarters of disappointment due to the iPhone, and therefore decided to make adjustments around guidance to provide a baseline from which it can be constructive going forward.

Firm retains their Buy rating due to the strength in non-iPhone core accounts which are set to accelerate throughout 2008 and into 2009, as well as belief that iPhone contributions have now been appropriately managed down. At this juncture, iPhone trends are largely outside management's control, with unlocked activity resulting in very low visibility into volumes. As a result, iPhone revenue expectations now incorporate meager volume assumptions for the rest of 2008, in our view, in an effort to avoid further disappointment. Additionally, they believe the low end of guidance factors in a risk that iPhone revenue in 2H08 could be close to zero should the activation process shift away from the current on-line model, although they believe Apple would likely be reluctant to allow for this change.

Goldman expects the stock will recover from this near-term set-back and that trends outside of the iPhone remain robust.

Notablecalls: The little hairs on the back of my neck are tingling. This is how wonderful I think the call is. Going to re-issue my Actionable Call Alert!

PS: I suspect SNCR will trade over the $13 level as soon as today. - fyi

Peabody (NYSE:BTU): Morgan Stanley ups tgt to $80 from $54

Morgan Stanley is out with a positive call on Peabody (NYSE:BTU) raising their tgt significantly from $54 to $80. According to the firm the co is increasingly a play on execution of a growth story in Australia. BTU has underperformed peers largely due to disappointing results in its Australian segment. MSCO thinks results will improve as coal chain expansions should allow Peabody to grow production, ease cost pressures, and improve its mix of high-margin metallurgical coal.

The firm thinks BTU can reach +30 mm tonne production sooner than expected, and on minimal investment. They expect improved pricing and volume, mostly in Australia, to result in EBITDA tripling from 2007 to 2009.

Reits Overweight.

Notablecalls: This is a pretty powerful call, ladies and gentlemen. Peabody has lagged peers recently due in large part to the performance of its Australian operations. Now Morgan Stanley says things are about to get better there & that the stock will catch up with peers.

This call is worth 1-3 pts of upside in the stock.

Hansen Natural (NASDAQ:HANS): JP Morgan defends the stock

JP Morgan is out defending Hansen Natural (NASDAQ:HANS) following weaker than expected quarterly results out last night:

Firm notes they remain Overweight here for a couple key reasons:

While Q1 EPS was a big disappointment, they do expect results to improve in the remainder of the year, as Hansen shipments start to more closely match underlying strength in retail sales based on Nielsen scanner data, and margin pressure dissipates. Second, based on after hours trading and their new EPS forecast, Hansen is trading at 15.7 times 2008E EPS, which the firm views as too low given retail sales momentum, and they believe is unfairly towards the lower end of Hansen’s lower growth beverage peers. They view valuation as particularly attractive given acquisition potential with recent industry consolidation of small, high-growth beverage companies, as well as Hansen’s strong balance sheet with $3.26 per share in net cash/investments and a share repurchase program in place comprising 7% of shares.

Notablecalls: We may see a bounce in HANS today.

PS: Note that Goldman Sachs is throwing in the towel downgrading their rating to Neutral from Buy this morning.

Synchronoss (NASDAQ:SNCR): Actionable Buy Alert!

Two tier-1 firms are out defending Synchronoss (NASDAQ:SNCR) following last night 45% decline in response to weaker than expected guidance:

- Deutsche Bank notes management attempted a delicate balancing act on the call, tempering a rough 2008 with brighter prospects for 2009. Overall, the firm believes the good news outweighs the bad. Investments made in Europe are starting to pay off as the company is in certification testing with Vodafone in Germany. Time Warner Cable will use Synchronoss technology for orders placed on their web site. Another (un-named) existing customer will deploy SNCR for a fixed-mobile convergence offering. Other significant items discussed include agreement with a leading European handset maker for online activation, a global agreement with Brightpoint, a handset logistics and fulfillment provider, and partnership with a global systems integrator who is including SNCR in their customer RFP responses. The company also announced a $25m buyback

The number of iPhones activated in 1Q08 and expected to be activated at AT&T this quarter are a minor disappointment relative to what SNCR expected. And by DB's calculations, the company's guidance (company claimed to remove $30m iPhone activation revenue from 2008) essentially leaves out any upside. They believe SNCR will continue to activate the new phone when it launches and estimate a revenue upside of up to $15m and EPS upside of $0.20. Reits Buy w/ tgt lowered to $30 from $45.

- Goldman Sachs notes the iPhone has very quickly turned from a blessing to a curse with SNCR's outlook reduced for the second quarter in a row due the product. 2Q2008 guidance now implies that iPhone activations have dramatically decelerated over the course of April, likely as consumers prepare for the 3G iPhone launch widely anticipated in June. However, the company's 2H2008 outlook does not reflect any meaningful recovery in iPhone activations relative to 1H. GSCO believes management has simply thrown in the towel in attempting to meaningfully forecast iPhone contributions due to the near-term erosion in activation visibility, and they, therefore, expect this is the "kitchen sink" quarter.

As a result, they are maintaining their Buy rating as the forward outlook now appears overly conservative relative to our iPhone expectations, noting new, albeit lower, estimates are 10%-20% above guidance and are supported by iPhone forecasts consistent with Apple and AT&T analyst teams. As a result, the firm expects the 40% downdraft in the stock after-market will prove to be a buying opportunity. 6-month tgt is lowered to $19 from $38.

Notablecalls: Oh my, SNCR sure took a bad beating in after hours. I feel for the longs. Truly do. This is what investing nightmares are made of.

Yet, with every faliure comes opportunity.

I'm going to rate SNCR an Actionable Buy under $15. Yes, Actionable! The iPhone is not going to go away. It can only get better from here with 3G & possibly better anti-unlocking features. I'm sure At&T is not happy with 40-50% of iPhone's being unlocked. Also, SCNR isn't just iPhone. SNCR just signed up a 'leading European handset maker' for online activation.

With two tier-1 firms defending the stock here it's going to bounce. No question about it.

PS: Kudos goes to ThinkEquity's (hate the new name!) SNCR analyst Eric Kainer who downgraded the stock just last week anticipating weaker than expected results & guidance. Keep up the good work!

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA): Cautious on the stock at this stage - Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs comments on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) ahead of quarterly results (May 8) saying both their checks and the recently released Mercury Research data suggest little upside to the current quarter, with slight headwinds from notebook GPUs and chipsets. GSCO is modeling FY1Q09 at $1,141 mn (-5.1% qoq)/EPS $0.34 vs. the Street at $1,153 mn (-4.1% qoq)/EPS $0.38. Perhaps more important, they think pockets of excess inventory at OEM customers could drive FY2Q09 guidance below the Street estimate of $1,123 mn/$0.37.

With the stock already up nearly 25% from recent lows, they think investor expectations could be somewhat inflated at this point. Firm remains cautious on the stock at this stage given 1) checks indicate excess inventory at graphics card OEMs that could drive lower-than-expected FY2Q guidance, 2) below-seasonal shipments by Nvidia's top customers Asustek and Microstar, 3) their view that there is limited upside to Nvidia's current market share in desktop GPUs and chipsets, and 4) the long-term competitive threat posed by Intel. Although valuation is still reasonable at 16X CY2009 EPS estimate, they await a better entry point as they think below-Street guidance for FY2Q09 is likely to drive a pullback in the stock from current levels.

Notablecalls: Expect to see weakness in NVDA today and possibly tomorrow.

Sprint Nextel (NYSE:S): Short that upgrade?

We have some news & comments on Sprint Nextel (NYSE:S) that make the stock a short in my book despite the upgrade from Cowen & Co:

- Banc of America notes they don't view a declaration that one or another party is looking to the investment merits of Sprint as news. They'd be dismayed if every private equity and telecom concern, foreign and domestic, wasn't constantly assessing the M&A and competitive landscape. This said, their initial response is that the hash of three different technologies might represent looks more like Sprint Nextel 2.0 in the making than anything else. The 1.0 version of this exercise was warning enough, in firm's view, about the risks and rewards of achieving bigness for its own sake.

The notion that Sprint could conceivably spin off iDEN is also not novel in BofA's view. Since the close of the Sprint Nextel transaction itself, Sprint has been thinking about the day when it would sever the network from the core. Since writing down nearly the whole of the iDEN business, this prospect has seemed even more tangible. This said, the iDEN business is right now possibly Sprint's most profitable business, even if it is in decline.

Could Sprint be on the verge of recasting the new CEO's strategy barely weeks after articulation, separating the iDEN business from the CDMA business and throwing to the wind the long-sought synergy benefits of doubling up on one technology? And then selling the CDMA business to GSM-based T-Mobile? Tantalizing. Is this what the news out today is telling us? Not even close, in firm's view.

So, heading into possibly the poorest quarterly report in recent wireless history, Sprint shares are up not on what is in any way a better financial picture, but merely, as they read it, inference. The firm maintains Sprint's challenges are addressable, but over the long term, and until concrete signs emerge that the business is stabilizing, which is not now, it seems too incredible that an outside party will ride to the rescue of stockholders. Maintains Neutral.

- BMO Capital notes Qwest and Verizon Wireless have announced that they have entered into a five-year agreement for Qwest to market and sell Verizon Wireless services. The current service provider is Sprint. Qwest had discussed the potential of doing a wireless deal with Verizon stating that the current deal with Sprint did not provide it with access to updated devices, and voice/data service plans, hence hampering its success in the market.

Qwest currently has over 800,000 customers on Sprint's CDMA network. This will likely be a negative for Sprint as the firm expects these customers could migrate over to the Verizon network over time.

Maintains Neutral rating and $9 tgt on S.

Notablecalls: First of all, Cowen & Co is out upgrading S to Outperform based expectation of a near-term deal that would unlock value for shareholders. I think the wonderful people at Cowen should read the BofA call. There won't be a n-t value unlocking event. Even if there is one, it's likely going to be a deal with Clearwire where I just don't see any unlocking of value happening.

I spoke to NCN Telco just yesterday and he said that @ $9 S is fairly valued and that he'd be shorting there.

So, S is a short on today's Cowen upgrade induced gap-up.

At least in my book.

Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO): Colour on news

Several firms are out with comments on Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) after Mr. Softee pulled its offer over the weekend:

- Piper Jaffray notes that while Microsoft officially pulled the bid to acquire Yahoo!, there are still many pieces and players that need to sort out before the dust truly settles. First, there is the obvious possibility that Yahoo! and Microsoft do hold further talks to potentially reach an agreement. As detailed in their 5/2 industry note on the proposed deal, Piper continues to believe that Microsoft needs help to create a formidable online advertising presence and believe Yahoo! still makes the most sense as an acquisition. Currently, Microsoft lags at third or lower in many major online advertising spaces: search, display, third party, and video; a Yahoo!acquisition would propel Microsoft into or near the lead in many of those categories. Firm believes there is still about a 30% chance a deal occurs despite the formal bid retraction. Separately, they believe there will be pressure from Yahoo! shareholders to quickly engage in other partnerships to maximize value including a search outsourcing deal with Google and/or an AOL merger. Maintains Neutral on YHOO stock with tgt lowered to $23 from $31.

- ThinkPanmure (what an earth of a name is this?! What happened to good old ThinkEquity?) notes that in what may likely to go down as one of the more destructive decisions for shareholder value in the history of Internet stocks, Yahoo!'s management and Board rejected Microsoft's final offer of $33 per share. To say they are disappointed is an understatement—dispirited is more like it. Firm expects most investors to feel the same and for YHOO shares to fall to fair value based on the company's stand-alone growth prospects, which they estimate at $20 or roughly 40% below Microsoft's last bid. At $20, YHOO shares would trade at an average of 9x 2009E EBITDA and 20x 2009E FCF/share.

Rating is lowered to Sell (from Acc) with tgt going to $20 from $31.

- Citigroup is lowering their rating to Sell saying YHOO stock will go down materially today. YHOO's stock was at $19.18 when MSFT made its bid. But they believe it's very unlikely YHOO will trade within 10% of that: 1) Major Indices (NASDAQ, S&P 500) and other major Internet stocks are generally up 3%+ since then; more importantly, 2) Strategic options like Search Outsourcing to Google and an AOL partnership have clearly been developed since then; and most importantly, 3) YHOO will remain in play, either on the belief that MSFT will come back (a la Oracle-BEA) or another bidder will emerge (News Corp-).

In Citi's opinion, YHOO has gone from an Event Stock to a Scenario Stock. They simplify to Three Scenarios. 1) Back To Business As Usual: With '08 remaining another major investment year and the company likely a sustainable low-double-digit EBITDA grower warranting a Media Multiple - 45% probability/$22 Stock = 8X '09 EBITDA; 2) Major Strategic Alternative: Google Search Outsourcing, AOL or MySpace Partnership, Asia Asset Sale & Substantial Buyback - 40% probability/$26 Stock - biggest upside is likely Google Outsource, which could add $1B+ in cashflow worth $6 per share to YHOO; & 3) MSFT-YHOO Deal Happens: 7% solution found and deal happens at $35 -- 15% probability/$35 Stock. Weight average these and YHOO now worth $26. Hence the Sell.

Notablecalls: I suspect MSFT is playing hardball with YHOO here. Yahoo will get sold to MSFT in the next 6 months as major holders like Legg Mason's Bill Miller will push the deal through. Buying YHOO @ $22 leaves ample upside w/ no significant downside risk. An ideal trade many hedgies will put on as soon as today. My gut tells me YHOO will trade over $23 level today.

I'm a buyer here around $22 and change.

Stec (NASDAQ:STEC): Short term positive but short lived? - Avian Research

Avian Research was out with an awesome intraday call on Stec (NASDAQ:STEC) on Friday. With the kind permission of Larry Zirkel their head of sales & trading, here's the meat of it:

..Recently numerous reports have indicated STEC has won a design for an MLC based SSD in the Apple (AAPL) MacBook Air. Follow up conversations with industry sources have basically confirmed this win. We were told that Apple initially approached Samsung about using its MLC SSD to replace the current SLC SSD in the MacBook Air. This view was based on Apple’s belief (which we agree) that using MLC SSD is the only way to make it more compelling for wide-spread consumer adoption as the current SSD upgrade costs $999.

Following months of negotiations both Apple and Samsung were unable to come to terms due to specific performance and pricing issues, and Apple then decided to seek STEC's alternative solutions. Although it's obvious that this win is important to STEC, our conversations suggest that this design win may be short-lived. In particular it has been suggested that Intel (INTC) has made inroads with AAPL and will see traction there once its design proves out. As a reminder MU and INTC have been substantial providers of NAND components to AAPL's other products. Longer-term we remain unconvinced that STEC will be able to parlay early design wins into a sustainable market leadership position as it doesn’t have the scale, particularly given a competitive landscape which includes a host of better financed companies with access to internal flash production. However there is no doubt that such a win is a short term positive for STEC...

Notablecalls: This is what I call research! While most of the sell-side is going ga-ga over STEC's potential, Avian's team has gone the extra mile and brought new perspective on the topic. Well done, guys!

Dynamic Materials Corp (NASDAQ:BOOM): In-Line Results but June Guidance May Shake Weak - Broadpoint

Broadpoint is out in defense of Dynamic Materials Corp (NASDAQ:BOOM) following results out last night:

According to the firm, a weaker than expected June quarter may require stronger ramp in the second half for the company to meet its unchanged CY08 guidance. They continue to believe in the long-term growth and would be buyers of this quality name on any weakness.

The company's backlog for explosive metalworking was up slightly to $102M at the end of the March Q vs. $100M in December. This was once again, in-line with firm's expectations of a "stable" backlog.

The company left its CY08 guidance of 60% Y/Y revenue growth (due to the DYNAenergetics acquisition) unchanged but 2Q:CY08 results are expected to be at the same level as 1Q:CY08. This was below consensus estimates of $0.56 on $64M. A weaker than expected June Q may require stronger ramp in the second half for the company to meet its unchanged CY08 guidance.

On the conference call, management talked about significant price increases and tension in the supply chain of high-quality carbon steel. Broadpoint believes in the worst case, this may lead to
some timing risk but clearly not lost business.They believe long-term business fundamentals remain strong and recommend that investors continue to add to positions on any pullback. They reiterate their Buy rating and $58 price target (20x CY09 EPS estimates of $2.90) on the stock.

Notablecalls: I think BOOM represents a good bounce play around the $40 level.

Herbalife (NYSE:HLF): Bounce candidate?

Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) reported excellent qtr and we have Goldman Sachs out saying they believe that this significant EPS out performance will largely overshadow the disappointing resignation of Greg Probert and would expect the shares to rally today, especially given how weak they have been of late.

Fyi,

NC

Notablecalls: The stock is currently trading around $41.80 and I strongly suggest you use this weakness to buy the stock. It was trading around $46.50 in the pre market. Looks like we have some profit taking here but it wont last much.

Formfactor (NASDAQ:FORM): Colour on quarter

Several firms out with comments on Formfactor (NASDAQ:FORM) after the co issued weaker than expected results & guidance last night:

- Cowen is clearly the most negative here calling the results a mess saying that in the wake of this poor outlook, FORM will likely retest lows in the morning. As they asserted last quarter, there seems to be little reason to downgrade the stock here, at the bottom. For reference, assuming the stock price goes back to previous lows ($17) the stock would be trading at 1.1x TBV and 1.3x revised forward revs.

FORM is caught in an extremely tough DRAM downturn that should take time to correct. FORM's customers are losing huge $$ and are unable to cover manufacturing costs so it is no surprise to Cowen that they are in cash preservation mode themselves.

In short, while the stock will likely find a bottom and might bounce a bit off these levels in the ST, there is nothing here to get excited about except that the stock is cheap and investors get a call option a LT recovery in FORM. Still if another DRAM recovery is coming there are other leveraged ways to play. Except for longer-term value investors there seems little reason to step into the name in the ST. Maintains Outperform.

- Piper Jaffray is somewhat more neutral noting FORM missed their expectations for Q1 and its guidance missed Q2 consensus. While the company shipped ~2x Harmony cards q/q and regained some prior share losses we believe that weakness in the DRAM industry will continue to weigh on the company's profitability over the next several quarters. Consequently, they do not expect the company to return to profitability until 2H09. However, the firm notes the company has a strong book value of ~$15.36/shr including cash of ~$11.40/shr and as such, they expect the shares to trade at close to 1x BV/shr until visibility improves and the company returns to profitability. Maintain Neutral rating. Tgt goes to $17 from $18.

- Morgan Stanley is the most bullish of the three saying its too early to rule out a 2H08 recovery. Though March quarter results were expected, June guidance was weaker than expected and management’s 2H08-recovery push out comments could be disconcerting for some investors, in their view. However, they think it is too early to rule out 2H08 recovery for three reasons a) poor visibility in FORM ‘s high (~60%) turns business, b) positive 2H08 DRAM supply-demand and pricing outlook by our global memory team, and c) recent sub 70nm transitions highlighted by DRAM makers to reduce costs. We also point out that FORM’s DRAM revenues doubled in ~ 3 quarters off the trough in the previous 2003-DRAM cycle lending credibility to firm's model that a similar rebound is quite possible in the current cycle. Consequently, their longer-term thesis on FORM’s secular growth driven by improving test efficiency and technology in the probe card market is unchanged.

With stock almost cut in half since its peak in September last year, they think the risk-reward
profile is not compelling for a downgrade at the current levels. Maintains Overweight while lowering tgt to $27.50 from $30.

Notablecalls: I think FORM will be a solid bounce candidate in the $16 range. That's around the book value.

Time Warner (NYSE:TWX): Major call from Citigroup

Citigroup is out with a major call on Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) saying they expect the co to reach an agreement with Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC).

Specifically, they expect a 3-step transaction: 1) TWX sells NY Group for a larger public stake in TWC, 2) TWC to pay a 1-time special dividend of about $6 per share, 3) TWX to distribute its stake in TWC to existing TWX equity holders.

Firm sees two potential benefits of the proposed transaction for TWX:

1) Split from TWC will highlight the “core” TWX valuation at just 10.3x ’08 EPS;

2) Special dividend should generate $1.35 per TWX share in cash, or 9% of current TWX value and 17% of the “core” equity value. They do not expect TWX to use dividend proceeds to repurchase shares.

Citigroup expects Time Warner and Time Warner Cable to make a joint announcement regarding Time Warner’s majority stake in the cable company some time over the next few months. Indeed, such an announcement could occur as soon as Wednesday, when both companies report Q108 earnings.

They think TWX’s equity is particularly attractive at these levels, given that the “core” is trading well below peer P/E multiples, coupled with a handful of potential catalysts.

As such, the firm continues to rate Time Warner a Buy. Maintains Buy rating at $25 price target.

Notablecalls: This is a major positive call from Citi's Jason Bazinet. I expect to see a significant upside move ($0.5-$0.75 is significant in TWX) in the stock today as there's a possiblity the deal will be announced as soon as tomorrow.

Obagi Medical (NASDAQ:OMPI): Actionable Trading Call!

Obagi Medical (NASDAQ:OMPI) is getting mega-comments from two firm this morning ahead of their Q1 report scheduled for May 5.

- Baird & Co reaffirms their Outperform rating and recommends purchase ahead of the Q1 report. They conducted a survey in 12 US cities to assess demand for physician-dispensed products. Firm's survey results indicate that demand for these products is roughly comparable to six months ago. Firm believes the market has priced in too much pessimism; buy ahead of quarter.

Baird's 2008 sales estimate of $122.0 million calls for revenue growth of 18.9% over 2007 levels, but they note that OMPI's sales in Q4 amounted to a $109 million run rate.

In addition, OMPI is continuing to launch both its CLENZIderm and ELASTIderm product lines, and most recently introduced the ELASTIderm Decolletage line extension.

The stock has halved in value since OMPI issued its Q4 report, but their survey data indicates that this pullback is unwarranted.

Reits Outperform and $30 tgt.

- Oppenheimer notes expect Obagi's 1Q08 earnings call on 05/05 to be a key catalyst for the shares. They expect management to provide qualitative and quantitative information on the macro environment and to clarify the growth outlook. With OMPI shares trading at 7.0X tempered '09 EPS estimate of $1.04, concerns on guidance risk (due to the reduction in discretionary aesthetic spending) seem overdone. Firm would buy on the weakness in the stock and expect strong secular growth, new product launches, and geographical expansion to support growth returning to 20%s in '09.

Firm believes that OMPI valuation has likely hit a trough, with shares declining more than 50% since the 4Q07 earnings call. With Obagi enterprise value trading at merely 1.3X '09 sales estimate of $140.9 million, the current valuation seems to reflect the Street's the most bearish view on the story, which essentially assumes no growth at all.

Reits Outperform & $15 tgt.

Notablecalls: Have I ever called a preview Actionable? Don't think I have. First time for everything. OMPI will report a week from now and I suspect the stock will at least 10%-20% higher by then.

Most of the asthetics space has been crushed but given that OMPI's products cost around $100 (& less) it's somewhat more immune to the weakening consumer than for example Mentor (NYSE:MNT) that makes breast implants ($10K a pop).

I think there will be a wave of acquisitions in the space (JNJ for MNT makes sense here, surely - been rumored for quiet a while) which will help the valuations.

Anyway, OMPI is a buy here. Actionable too.

Momenta Pharma (NASDAQ:MNTA): Upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is upgrading Momenta Pharma (NASDAQ:MNTA) to Overweight-V and increasing their target to $22. Firm believes the stars could be finally aligning for the FDA approval of MNTA/NVS’s M-Enox in 2008-09 as the only genericversion of SNY’s Lovenox (blood thinner), potentially leading to: 1) 40-50% share of the $1.5+ billion U.S. Lovenox market, 2) peak potential earnings of $3/sh and 3) a share price of $40+. The downside risk of a long delay or non-approval is that the stock returns to $6.

Why are they upgrading now? Firm believes that the heparin (a complex sugar) contamination crisis may have given MNTA the unique opportunity to prove to the FDA its proprietary technology for characterizing complex sugars. Last week’s Nature publication shows that MNTA worked with the FDA to identify the heparin contaminant. They view this work as a game changer, underestimated by the Street. In our opinion, the FDA is now more likely to view MNTA’s technology as sufficient to show that M-Enox is the same as Lovenox (also a complex sugar) — a key regulatory hurdle and one they feel competitors Teva and Amphastar cannot achieve.

Notablecalls: This is a game-changing upgrade for this stock. Morgan Stanley has been neg on MNTA for quite some time (UW rating) and now they are saying the stock could do $35+ under bullish scenario.

I expect to see a 10%-15% upside move in MNTA today.

Bucyrus (NASDAQ:BUCY): We may be materially underestimating Bucyrus's profitability potential - Baird

Baird is out with some good comments on Bucyrus (NASDAQ:BUCY) following Q1 results announced yesterday.

According to the firm Impressive margin performance drove 1Q08 EPS $0.28 (29%) above consensus and both new machine and aftermarket orders were exceptional. While 1Q revenue was only in line with their estimate (and below consensus), strong order intake creates greater visibility of sustained growth potential, and the substantial upside to their 1Q margin estimates suggests they may be materially underestimating Bucyrus's profitability potential.

Order growth surges. 1Q08 orders increased 58% sequentially (following a 108% sequential increase last quarter) to $1,093 million, well above the $565 million of orders incorporated in Baird's model. 1Q08 consolidated N12M backlog stood at $2.07 billion, up 40% sequentially.

While Baird currently maintains their Outperform rating and $130 tgt they expect their EPS estimates, price target to move higher after management's conference call (8:00 a.m. CDT).

Notablecalls: I suspect Baird's target on BUCY goes to around $140+ following conf call. This will make the stock look cheap again & will provide another push over the $120 level. It's all about orders and orders sure were up strong. The slight miss on rev side doesn't mean much. It's ALL about orders. Buying BUCY around $115 (offered pre-mkt) will likely lead to profits.

Ariba (NASDAQ:ARBA): See meaningful appreciation in the next six months -Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank has some interesting comments on Ariba (NASDAQ:ARBA) following better than expected results posted last night.

Ariba reported strong 2Q revenues and EPS of $83m and $0.09 (above DB's and consensus estimates of $82m and $0.08) with subscriptions of $31m (up over 50% y/y organically) and bookings up over 70% organically. Firm believes 2Q could represent a turning point for the stock and see meaningful appreciation in the next six months on execution to guidance alone. Reiterates Buy and $16 price target.

Firm sees execution to management's reiterated guidance of $0.45 in EPS for Sept. improving investor sentiment in the short-term and see several dynamics helping longer-term growth: 1) full-featured SaaS release GA, 2) sales capacity up 26% y/y and productivity is improving, and 3) an improved competitive environment with SAP's delayed SRM initiative and Procuri. They expect these factors alongside a growing ASN opportunity being showcased at the May 5th Analyst day and User Conference and would recommend building positions before that event.

Notablecalls: I see ARBA just broke the $10 level this AM. More upside may be in the cards.

Potash (NYSE:POT): JP Morgan raises 2009 EPS est way high - expect a positive reaction

JP Morgan is out with a major earnings change on Potash (NYSE:POT) this morning raising their 2009 EPS est to $18.50 from $11.75 a share (vs. consensus $12.70).

Firm's 2008 earnings estimate goes to $10.50 from $8.95 a share.

Notablecalls: Wow, this is probably one the largest EPS est raises I've seen in a long time. POT has gotten whacked over the past two days on apparent "sell-the-news" reaction to their fantastic results.

I suspect POT will be re-testing the $200 level today following JPM's call.

PS: Currently, RBC Capital has the Street high $300 tgt on POT. This tgt is based on their 2009 EPS of $15.02, which is over $3 lower than JPM's new EPS est. Fwiw.

Vmware (NYSE:VMW): Shorts on the run

I kinda like Vmware (NYSE:VMW) this morning. Think the shorts are on the run and the stock could hit $70 in a jiffy.

- Jeffco ups tgt to $70 from $55. Maintains Buy.

- Bear reits Outperform. Tgt goes to $95 (was higher).

- Merrill Lynch ups tgt to $74. Buy rated.

NC

Syntax-Brillian (NASDAQ:BRLC): Upgraded to Outperform at Baird - should jump big

Baird is upgrading Syntax-Brillian (NASDAQ:BRLC) to Outperform from Neutral based on recently announced strategic initiatives and what they view as an attractive valuation. New price target is $3.

Syntax-Brillian is ramping TV manufacturing at Compal, moving away from Kolin. Firm believes the move eliminates most of the counterparty risk seen with the Kolin relationship. Syntax-Brillian also announced it will implement headcount reduction, cutting its overhead costs by approximately 20%.

In firm's opinion, the company's decision to focus on strategic customers is positive and will result in better service to its U.S. big-box retailers. Should the company be successful securing
guaranteed orders from some of its big-box customers, working capital issues would be virtually
eliminated.

They believe Syntax-Brillian's chances of bankruptcy are very slim and that the company will be
able to refinance its debt, significantly lowering its interest expense. Recent streamlining of
business model should help cash flows as well.

Current weakness in U.S. TV demand is leading Syntax-Brillian to gain market share as tier-two/three TV brands are currently ongoing consolidation, in Baird's view. Excess panel capacity should help Syntax-Brillian's gross margin going forward. * Risks to the stock remain significant, including a potential delisting due to filing delays, potential financial restatements, as well as possible additional cash issues.

However, these risks are already built into the current valuation. The stock is currently trading at about 0.3x last reported tangible book and 0.2x our new C08 revenue estimate.

Notablecalls: Wow. This will help the stock lift today as Baird is reportedly one of the most influential ratings mover. BRLC has been left for the dead recently given Sony's much-speculated entry into lower-cost LCD TV market.

I have really nothing to add here. I think the stock goes to $1.35-$1.40. Today.

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC): Downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer's Meredith Whitney put her death spell on Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) downgrading the stock to Underperform from Perform, as they believe the company is under-reserved by at least $4.5 billion and will need to take a reserve "true-up" in 2008 and potentially more in 2009. Wells has been a long-time favorite holding of investors due to its consistency and continuity of results; thus, the firm believes there is significant room for multiple contraction in the event of anything unexpected, and in this case an unexpected reserve build. Note, given their now dramatically below consensus estimates, they believe few if any are anticipating what they believe to be the inevitable consequence of Wells' current reserve position.

Oppenheimer is cutting their EPS estimate for FY2008 to $1.20 from $2.15 vs. consensus of $2.33. FY2009E goes to $2.00 from $2.15 vs. consensus of $2.65.

They make the following forward assumptions: credit will continue to deteriorate and WFC will need to build its reserve coverage back in line with historical standards. Accordingly, they believe WFC will be forced to make reserve "true-ups" in excess of $4.5 billion throughout 2008. Note, our peak 2008 loss estimate for home equity is 4%, 1.1% for first mortgages, 7.5% for credit cards, and 1% for commercial loans. These loss assumptions are in line with industry expectations, but if losses continue to accelerate past the 2Q, Opco's well below Street estimates will prove too optimistic.

Notablecalls: Meredith Whitney has been dead right on many of the major financials lately. I fully expect WFC to trade below $30 level today.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Citigroup ups EPS est to a new Street high

Citigroup is raising their ests on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to a new Street high. Firm now expects $7.0B rev(prev $6.9B, consensus $6.95B), 36.5% GM (35.2%, ~33.5%), and EPS of $1.23 ( prev $1.14, consensus $1.06). New 1CQ08 rev and EPS ests reflect solid PC sales and, more importantly, sharp ~40% declines in DRAM/flash pricing.

Citi now expects PC unit shipments of 2.1M (+38% yoy) versus our prior estimate of 2.0M and consensus of 2.06M, with upside coming from Mac Pro desktops and MacBook Air notebooks. They now expect iPod unit shipments of 9.5M versus prior estimate of 10.0M and consensus of 10.5M; iPod should struggle until the line is refreshed in 3CQ.

They continue to expect iPhone unit shipments of 1.5M despite the impending 3G iPhone launch.
Citi expects Apple to guide 2CQ revenue flattish sequentially, gross margin down sequentially, and EPS down sequentially, none of which should shock the Street.

Reits Buy and $212 tgt. AAPL remains their Top Pick.

Notablecalls: Note that Citi's $1.23 EPS est is the new Street high. That's a pretty bold move by Mr. Gardner. Should drive at least $2-3 pts of upside in the stock early on.

Citigroup (NYSE:C): Short?

Talking to a smart trader (former heavy hitter at a major firm) who says he's looking to short Citigroup (NYSE:C) on today's gap-up. According to him the write downs are more real than people suspect, nothing to be recaptured. Lots of headline risk and a definite recap has to get done, they're going out the well again very late, will affect pricing.

Morgan Stanley is also out on Citi this morning saying their forward view is more challenging
in light of credit deterioration. Citi’s miss vs. consensus today had more to do with rising credit costs and reserve build than the market related losses. While Citi was $3B higher than their estimate, the Street was building in significantly higher write-downs. This is a negative for
the stock as credit deterioration will be longer tailed than market losses. EPS estimates likely to come down.

Notablecalls: It prolly makes some sense to scale into a short position in C this AM. I've already started with a small position around $26.25.

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG): Congrats, Gene!

Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster must feel like a champ following Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) results out last night. Munster retained his positive stance & Street high tgts on the stock even after most other firms took down their numbers and ratings following comScore data that (falsely) indicated a slowdown in co's search business. Here's what the analyst has to say this AM:

Last night's results are a reminder to stay focused on the big picture, vs. month to month performance data. As for the big picture, we continue to believe Google will begin to see measurable contribution from Doubleclick, YouTube, and general improvement in consumer search during the second half of 2008. Additionally, Google's major competitors (Microsoft, Yahoo, AOL, and Fox Interactive) continue to seek leverage in Yahoo takeover/merger talks, which we believe may prevent them from executing any near term strategies to compete with Google. Meanwhile, recent Wall Street Journal reports suggest Google is getting closer to signing a deal with Yahoo to outsource search.

What About Paid Clicks? The street was bracing for Google to report a miss in paid clicks given recent third party data. In defense of the third party data, it did accurately predict the direction of paid click growth and Google reports paid clicks on a worldwide basis. Therefore, paid clicks in the U.S. conceivably could be closer to what comScore suggested. Google's paid clicks were up 20%y/y, vs up 30% in December, and up 45% in March. The key take away: Paid clicks are difficult to predict and dismiss an important factor: revenue per click. Google appears to have a strong handle on balancing the relationship between paid clicks and revenue per click.

The $842 Million Question. Google spent $842m in CAPEX (on land and data centers) for Q1 vs $678m in Q4 last year, a 24% increase. To put this in perspective, this is more than Amazon, eBay, or Yahoo ($224m, $454m, $602m) spent individually for all of last year. Microsoft is spending similar numbers per quarter to Google, but their spending is spread across various business lines while Google's spending is purely on internet offerings. The bottom line is that we believe it will be difficult for any Google competitors to compete against the sheer scale of Google's technology empire.

Munster ups his tgt on GOOG stock to $819 from $790 (both Street high) and maintains Buy rating.

Notablecalls: So GOOG managed to come in-line w/ consensus. Great! Guess it desevres to trade around $520+. Think short covering played an important role in last night's upside move.

No edge here. Just fyi.

Is it just me...

..or is this market really tough (& getting tougher by the day) ?

NC

PS: Thinking of taking a break. Some of my smartest contacts on NCN (Notable Calls Network) are already enjoying the Keys.

Sigma Designs (NASDAQ:SIGM): Sell-off unwarranted - Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank's Nagesh Sukhi is out with some very good comments on Sigma Designs (NASDAQ:SIGM) following yesterday fall-off caused by Baird & Co saying Broadcom had won a design at Motorola for its next generation IPTV set-top box.

- According to the firm have they have always maintained the view that Broadcom would likely garner some share of IPTV set-top boxes in 2009 and so this is not new or surprising. They also note that winning a design does not necessarily mean that Broadcom's chip will be used in higher volume boxes from the STB OEMs. They have said all along that Sigma's market share in both the IPTV and Blu-ray DVD markets is likely to decrease starting in 2009 due to new entrants, which is normal in any fast growing end markets.

Back in March based on existing inventory levels of set-top boxes at Motorola/AT&T, the firm determined that the company's FY2009 revenue guidance of $300-350m (mid point of which would indicate +47% y/y growth) was likely unrealistic. Based on their assumptions for market share this year and next they believe that the company can realistically achieve +25-35% growth in FY2009 (already reflected in DB numbers). They believe the rest of the sell-side is now realizing this as well and as a result they expect the Street numbers to come down to DB ests.

Deutsche continues to like Sigma due to its leadership position in the IPTV and Blu-ray DVD markets. They believe SIGM will likely to outgrow all its peers this year and again likely next year.

Maintains Buy and $43 tgt on the stock.

Notablecalls: I didn't think Baird's call would do THAT much damage to SIGM stock. While very good it was still mostly based on speculation. I expected to stock to see 10% downside at best with some stops being hit creating some additional 5% follow-through over the next couple of days.

Yet, the stock got taken to the back and SHOT. Execution style. Boom.

The shorts and scared sellers overdid it here. It needs to bounce. My gut tells me $18+ level is fair enough today. I almost want to call it Actionable here.

Oh and btw, this is what Lightreading.com has to say about SIGM:

'..But Sigma isn't convinced that Motorola has made any decisions on its next generation of boxes, considering Broadcom's relatively recent entry into the market. "Decisions like that are not usually made in that way," says Ken Lowe, Sigma vice president of business development.

Even if Motorola has decided it likes Broadcom, Sigma probably wouldn't lose all its business there. "The type of position somebody like Motorola would take is that they want to offer as many options as they can," Lowe says. "As far as I'm concerned, we're in very good position with our next-generation product...'

Sigma Designs (NASDAQ:SIGM): Losing customers - Baird

- Baird is out with a negative call on Sigma Designs (NASDAQ:SIGM) saying their checks indicate Broadcom has won Motorola's second-generation high-end IPTV set-topboxes (Microsoft's Mediaroom platform), for launch in 2009. As a result, they expect Sigma Designsto lose IPTV share at large telcos including AT&T, British Telecom, and KDDI starting next year. They also believe Sigma will lose market share at Samsung for Blu-ray players this second-half, due to pricing. Firm believes Broadcom-based Motorola IPTV set-top boxes are already prototyping, and are scheduled for launch in calendar 1H09.

Checks also indicate Sigma Designs could lose significant market share at Samsung Blu-ray players this second-half, due to pricing. Baird believes Broadcom has design wins in Blu-ray ramping this year. Both Broadcom and Mediatek plan on launching an integrated back-end/front-end SOC next year. Panasonic is currently selling a 45nm-based Blu-ray back-end SOC.

Reducing estimates, as well as price target to $26 from $30 on SIGM shares. Neutral rating.

Notablecalls: Motorola generated 23% of Sigma Designs' revenues in fiscal 2008, making it their largest customer. SIGM will be a $17-$18 stock soon. Nice call by Baird's Tristan Gerra.

USEC (NYSE:USU): Actionable Trading Call Alert

Two firms are positive on USEC (NYSE:USU) this morning:

- Jefferies notes the DoE has submitted its loan guarantee implementation plan to Congress for a 45 day review. The DoE aims to issue solicitations in late May or June for $2bn in "front-end" nuclear facilities, $18.5bn for nuclear power facilities, and $10bn for renewable energy and energy efficiency & transmission projects.

Given the advanced stage of the American Centrifuge Project, the firm expects USEC to pass the DoE's technical review easily, particularly if the review focuses on "new or significantly improved technologies" that can help reduce greenhouse gases. Firm expects the Street to have more concern over the financial review, which focuses on the project's creditworthiness, construction costs and timeline, and legal/regulatory risk--particularly given the ongoing uncertainty over the ACP costs and USEC's ability to secure SWU prices that generate returns above its cost of capital.

Rising uranium and SWU prices and elevated energy prices provide an attractive backdrop for operational improvements at USEC, particularly given conservative Street expectations on competitor behavior and project execution.

Reits Buy and $11 tgt om USU.


- Goldman Sachs notes they are encouraged that under the plan, the first solicitations for loan guarantees would include $2 bn for advanced nuclear facilities for the "front end" of the nuclear fuel cycle. This directly applies to USEC's American Centrifuge Project (ACP) and they see few if any other candidates. Separately, the GAO concluded that the DOE's stockpile of depleted uranium could be worth as much as $7.6 billion and recommended a sales strategy be completed "as soon as possible." Firm believes this could potentially lead to an enrichment contract with USEC, enabling USEC to capture some of the economics.

While American Centrifuge Project (ACP) execution and risk remains their primary focus, GSCO sees two potential catalysts that provide valuation support at current levels.

- First, the path to a DOE loan guarantee is becoming increasingly clear. They believe USEC could be awarded a loan guarantee by the end of 2008 or early 2009.

- Second, re-stripping of DOE high assay tails could be a meaningful opportunity for USEC. They believe USEC is well suited to bid on any re-stripping contract which could create $1 billion of total value over four years.

Notablecalls: Guys, I have good feel about this one. Why? Well, for several reasons:

- First this uranium play has been trashed over the past year or so. No catalysts, no nothing. And suddenly, kaboom - Dept. of Energy offers us one with GSCO calling USU pretty much the only beneficiary of the loan plan.

- Secondly, takeover rumors have started to circle around the uranium plays. We had two last week - CCJ & USU. Both worked very well, telling me the path of least resistance is UP.

I believe this one may have 10-20% s-t upside. I calling these two calls Actionable Trading Calls.

eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY): believe eBay is beginning to turn the corner - Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray is increasing their estimates for eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) primarily due to better performance of the core eBay Marketplace in Q1. They arealso increasing estimates for PayPal and Skype.

For Q1, they move from$2,058M and $0.40 to $2,164M and $0.42. Firm note consensus is $2,064M and $0.39 and guidance is $2-2.05M and $0.37-0.39. For 2008, they move from $8.6B and $1.67 P EPS to $9.1B and $1.75. For 2009, they move from $9.6B and $1.88 to $10.5B and $2.00.

They believe solid Q1 upside, increased guidance, and improving metrics (listings and GMV acceleration) should serve as catalyst for shares. While 2008 is still a transition year for eBay as it undertakes a number of initiatives to reaccelerate core eBay growth, they believe eBay is beginning to turn the corner and they believe shares offer an attractive entry point at 18x/16x
2008/2009 PF EPS vs. 15-20% est LT EPS growth.

Piper is also increasing their PT from $34 (18x '09 PF EPS) to $40 (20x '09 PF EPS) due to higher estimates and a slightly higher multiple due to the improved fundamental outlook.

Notablecalls: This is a pretty meaningful call by PJ's Aaron Kessler on many counts.

- First, they are upping their Market Place ests which is somewhat of a surprise (stronger listing + FX)

- Secondly, Payments rev estimates are upped by quite a bit. This is mostly due to increased Market Place revs.

- Third, Skype ests are upped nice. I continue to view Skype as an interesting call option as there have been rumors of Google being interested in buying Skype. Chatter indicates Google is willing to pay up to $6B for Skype, which is twice as much as eBay paid for the co just 2 yrs ago.

eBay has found zilch ways to integrate Skype into their biz model and selling the darn thing for a $3b profit would be awesome.

- Lastly, PJ is upping their tgt to $40 saying they believe eBay is beginning to turn the corner. Bold statement.

Anyway, I think eBay is a buy here given the upside potential & possible catalysts.

Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL): Cowen ups ests way above consensus

Cowen is out positive on Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) this morning raising their Street high 2008 estimates to to reflect the new GCL supply deal, which boosts secured silicon to 95% of targeted production. We believe Street consensus is too low on operating margin, and too high on interest expense (poly plant interest should be capitalized). Silicon coverage for 2009 also looks good, with perhaps 15% still to come from new sources.

Raising 2008E E/ADS To $4.05 Vs. Prior $3.64, Street $2.90. They raised revenue to $750MM (vs. prior $710MM, St. $709MM), based on shipments of 195MW (in line with 95% coverage of 200-210MW target). Since 15% of poly is covered by the new contract, they boosted GM by 50 b.p., to 23.8% (vs. St. 23.1%).

Sees 50%+ upside vs. the market in 12 months and reiterates Outperform.

Notablecalls: Cowen's one of the best firms covering the Solar space. I suspect TSL will trade up today. I see a possible squeeze developing.

General Electric (NYSE: GE): Bounce around $34

GE is getting trashed following weaker than expected results. You have to understand that most of this is coming from the fin. side.

GE's a buy here at $34.

PS: Some perspective from a very smart hedgie:

"..I changed my whole perspective the day... UBS reported a staggering 19Bln charge... WAY more than expectations... and closed the day up$4.."

NC

Lehman Bros (NYSE:LEH): Smelling a squeeze

Lehman Bros (NYSE:LEH) is trading down this morning in reaction to:

1) News of 3 funds closing (non-event)

2) Deutsche Bank's Mike Mayo saying while LEH's liquidity seems okay, he continues to expect more write-downs to equity (est. $2 bln in 2Q08) and tougher revenues this year. As a result, their estimates for the quarter and the year remain below consensus ($0.43 vs. $1.07 for 2Q08 and $3.95 vs. $4.69 FY2008) and still have a negative bias. Given an adjusted BV of estimate of $47 that is est. one-fifth above the stock price, and a new ROE range close to the avg. since the IPO (15%) but a price-to-book ratio that is one-third below, the firm maintains their Buy rating.

Notablecalls: While Briefing.com hilights DB's call this AM I know for a fact that Mayo was out with the call yesterday just before close. (You see the 1pt sell-off?). That makes LEH a bounce play around $39.50. He's not even negative on LEH.

I smell a squeeze.

Focus Media (NASDAQ:FMCN) lowers guidance

* Announces revised guidance for mobile advertising business
* Sees FY 2008 revenue $860 million to $890 million
* Reuters Estimates FY 2008 revenue view $909.40 million
* Says expects FY revenue for wireless business will be significantly lower
than previously announced guidance of $54.0 million to $55.8 million
* Sees revenue from mobile handset business in 2008 to be between $14.0 million
to $15.8 million

- Via Reuters

Notablecalls: While Briefing.com Trader is calling for recent lows ($29.25), I respectfully disagree. Piper Jaffray was out neg on FMCN yesterday saying CHL had stopped co's wireless services (6% of revs). The stock was down close to 7%.

So, today's warning is pretty much priced in already. Saw some conviction buyers around $30.50. Should represent the floor. Fwiw.

Not sure you can get fills around there, though.

Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS): Upgraded to Buy at Amtech

AmTech: Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS): upgrade to Buy. We think much of yesterday's neg pre-ann was based on 1-time events including CMP rev recognition change, inventory write-down, & higher tax rate. Based on checks we think a restructuring of NVLS's biz is currently underway and CMP and dry strip will be discontinued (unprofitable), along w/layoffs. This will improve NVLS's profitability & make it more attractive as a take-over candidate. Stock is currently trading near trough valn levels at 1.6x book. PT $27.50.

Notablecalls: I like this call as the timing is just perfect. The stock got killed yesterday following the pre-announcement & looks to be ready for a bounce.

Amag Pharma (NASDAQ:AMAG): Bounce to $39+

I just wanted to say I think AMAG has a fair chance to bouncing today, given the additonal colour. I see the stock around $39+ today.

NC

Amag Pharma (NASDAQ:AMAG): Strongly believe Ferumoxytol will recieve first pass approval- Jefferies

Jefferies out on the box saying to buy AMAG agressively here. Analyst says there will be NO delay.

Notablecalls: I do agree - at $38 the stock is a buy.

Deets: Jefferies notes on Friday they held a conference call for clients featuring AMAG CEO Dr. Brian Pereira. The firm says AMAG bears have argued that the ferumoxytol development program does not include a sufficient number of patient exposures to meet I.C.H safety guidelines (N=1,500). To set the record straight the firm notes, AMAG's CEO went on record (again) to confirm that, in total, over 1,700 patients and healthy volunteers were treated with ferumoxytol in the co's eleven clinical studies. The firm also says the fact that AMAG has the resources to execute additional clinical trials in C.K.D, but has chosen not to do so, suggests that AMAG strongly believes the filing is complete in its current form, per FDA guidance.

Amag Pharma (NASDAQ:AMAG): Downgraded to Sell at Merrill Lynch

Merrill saying it's worth $21 to $29. They now see potential for a delayed launch til 2011.

This thing could be down 10%+ today.

NC

PS: One NCN member has some interesting comments on the AMAG downgrade.

It's the third time hes downgraded it in 10 weeks - first Jan 30 then Feb 28 and now. Nothing new in the report. Also the analyst was hired by Merrill only last year and I think the guy's trying to make a name for himself.

Jan 30 he went from a $100 target to $78 the stock fell 6 points. Than Feb 28 he went to Neutral and stock fell $4 I think.

I'm just saying the whole street knows he has it out for AMAG.

Notablecalls: Excellent colour.

Antigenics Inc (NASDAQ:AGEN): Wow!

The tiny biotechnology company Antigenics Inc (NASDAQ:AGEN) said on Tuesday it has won approval to market its kidney cancer vaccine, Oncophage, in Russia, making it the only cancer vaccine available in the world.

The product was approved despite failing to win approval in the United States. It is the first time the Russian government has approved a foreign drug that was not first cleared in its country of origin, Antigenics said. Antigenics is also planning to file for approval of the vaccine in Europe by the end of the year.

- Via Reuters

Notablecalls: Phew! This is unbelievable! World's 1st cancer vaccine is approved. This is historic. I expect to see some buy interest in other cancer vaccine names, mainly Dendreon (NASDAQ:DNDN).

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Apple should be 10+ pts lower here

Morgan Keegan, one of the best research houses on the Street is downgrading Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to Underperform from Mkt Perform.

Notablecalls: About time! I was all over AAPL when the stock was 35 pts lower. I now feel it has gone too far too fast. Needs to be at least 10 pts lower. The problems with iPhone in Europe should be weighing on the stock. Read what uber-analyst Tero Kuittinen had to say about European iPhone demand over at Realmoney.

PS: Deets (the wording is very strong):

We are downgrading our rating on AAPL shares from Market Perform to Underperform based on mounting evidence of broad-based weakness in consumer technology spending in the U.S. and Europe.

We also expect that Apple's education vertical will be more challenged this year given state and local budget issues, which combined with what appears to be a more stable component pricing environment, we believe will lead to a deceleration in growth over the next 2-3
quarters.

We are maintaining our March estimates for Apple, but slightly lowering June, Sept., and Dec. quarter expectations for both iPods and Macs based on a difficult economic environment. We are now projecting Y/Y EPS growth to slow substantially over the next few quarters. We believe the upside potential in the shares if the Mac biz continues to outperform is outweighed by the downside risk if growth begins to slow, and are therefore downgrading to Underperform.

Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD): Top Pick at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is initiating coverage of Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) with an Overweight rating; STLD is firm's new top pick. US steel supply has been constrained by declining imports. The industry has sufficient capacity to meet only about 80% of domestic demand, which has sparked a wave of rising prices. They believe Steel Dynamics is well positioned to benefit from the import void as a result of growing its production capacity faster than at any other major North American steel producer. Expects secular growth resulting from the company’s increased production base, combined with improving industry fundamentals, to drive earnings growth 8–29% above current consensus estimates over the next three years. Firm believes consensus is missing STLD’s growth potential.

MSCO thinks the market is underestimating the double impact of improving industry fundamentals and strong shipments growth to Steel Dynamic’s bottom line. Consensus EPS estimates are flat from 2008 to 2009, which is inconsistent with the 15% production growth planned for 2009, assuming relatively stable metal margins, which they expect. Firm forecasts EPS of $3.07 in 2008e, $3.54 in 2009e, and $3.85 in 2010e, well above consensus of $2.88, $2.89, and $2.98, respectivel.

Near-term catalyst (April 21). Firm believes the next major earnings revision will occur when the company reports 1Q08 results. They expect management to provide 2Q earnings guidance, and possibly update full-year guidance. Firm recommends that investors build positions in STLD ahead of the earnings release.

Notablecalls: This is a bold move by Morgan Stanley that will not go unnoticed. Expect to see buy interest in STLD today. Also in US Steel (NYSE:X) (upped to Overweight)

I must say I'm somewhat more cautious on the steel names after MSCO's call. The STLD call is actually part of a larger positive Steel call. We may have put in a s-t top in the Steels after today.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) buying Bear (NYSE:BSC) stock on the open market - Reuters

JPMorgan Chase & Co said it bought 11.5mm shares of Bear Stearns on the open mkt. With the purchase, JPMorgan owns about 12.98mm Bear shares, or about 8.9%. JPMorgan said it expects to buy more shares, potentially until it owns as much as 49.5% of Bear Stearns' outstanding shares.

- Reuters

Notablecalls: What the heck is JPM doing buying BSC stock above their own $10 bid? Is it because they know (or suspect) something..?

Riverbed Technology (NASDAQ:RVBD): Increased risk for CSCO, JNPR - Cowen

Cowen & Co notes that last night Riverbed Technology (NASDAQ:RVBD), a leading provider of WAN optimization solutions, pre-announced that its Q1 revenue would be roughly $72.0-$73.0mm, well below its original guidance range of $79.0-$82.0mm. Riverbed's main competitors include both Cisco and Juniper.

On the call management noted that the shortfall was mainly the result of delayed purchases with respect to its larger deals. Furthermore, it noted that while some larger deals got pushed others were downsized.

Given Riverbed's weaker then expected results and given that it participates in one of the fastest growing market segments within enterprise networking; they believe that this increases the risk associated with all enterprise facing vendors operating results including Cisco, Foundry, Juniper, NETGEAR, and Polycom.

Notablecalls: RVBD represents the sexiest part of networking. With these guys failing to come at least in-line w/ guidance people should be worried about the current state of business at CSCO & JNPR.

BioMimetic Therapeutics (NASDAQ:BMTI): Deutsche Bank reits Buy and $22 tgt - Actionable Call Alert

Deutsche Bank out positive on BioMimetic Therapeutics (NASDAQ:BMTI) saying they conducted a due diligence call with Dr. Jeffrey Wieman, the Lead Investigator for the Regranex pivotal study and involved with the product since its preclinical days, to discuss recent concerns over potential Regranex cancer deaths. Based on all his work with Regranex, Dr. Weiman does not believe there is a causal relationship between Regranex (or PDGF) and carcinogenesis/cancer deaths. Also, he is actually a cancer expert and CEO of St. Luke's Cancer Institute (Univ. of Missouri) and understands the nuances of cancer mechanism/science.

Firm continues to believe FDA's Regranex safety review will not materially impact BMTI's GEM OS1 clinical/regulatory outlook given the poor clinical/scientific link between recombinant PDGF and cancer.

Reiterates Buy and $22 tgt.

Notablecalls: You gotta buy BMTI here. Based on DB's call the stock deserves to trade around $11-$12 here. Going to call it Actionable Trading Call.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN): Lowering 1Q/2008 Estimates based on Consumer - Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray is lowering their revenue and EPS estimates for Amazon due to 1) PJ's 1Q08 eCommerce survey which suggests sluggish online spending for U.S. consumers in 2008 2) 3rd party online spending data which suggests a meaningful deterioration in eCommerce spending in Q1 and 3) low levels of consumer confidence and retail sales data. They are also lowering interest income to account for the lower interest rate environment. For 1Q, they are lowering revenue and PF EPS from $4.13B and $0.43 to $4.0B and $0.39. 1Q revenue guidance is for $3.95-4.15B. For CY08, the firm is moving from $19.4B and $2.03 to $19.1B and $1.91. Approximately $0.06 of lower PF EPS is from the lower revenues and the other $0.06 is from lower interest income.

PJ notes that they are lowering 2008 North America revenue estimate by 3.2% vs. previous estimates. They have left International revenue estimates unchanged given the strength in the Euro (up 3% q/q in Q1 and up 5% q/q in Q2) which they expect to largely offset a slowing International consumer.

Overall, PJ's survey indicated low levels of consumer confidence. 36% of respondents indicated that they are worse off financially today vs. a year ago, 23% indicated they are better off, and 41% indicated their financial condition was the same. Looking forward, 21% of respondents indicated that they expect their financial condition to worsen over the next year, 38% expect their financial situation to improve, and 42% expect their financial condition to remain the same.

Notablecalls: I'm surprised yet again. This pretty much goes against what we heard when the stock was 20% lower. PJ's call is going to hurt AMZN today. Go short early & aggressively but don't overstay your welcome.

This is not the end yet.

The race is not for the swift, nor the battle for the strong, But time and chance happens to them all. Fate's hand falls suddenly, who can say when it falls?

MEMC Elec (NYSE:WFR): Bounce

I like WFR down here. Sure, it deserves to be down 2-3 pts but not more. The issues are very s-t in nature.

NC

PS: We're almost certain to get defenses from several tier-1 firms. UBS analyst is probably already calling his best clients & telling them to buy all the WFR they can sub-$72.

Proprietary Intelligence: Promising ITC Bill May See Senate Action This Week - Cowen

Cowen notes their sources in D.C. tell them that Senators Cantwell and Ensign are drafting an energy tax (ITC/PTC) bill--WITHOUT pay-fors, which could see Senate action Friday. Firm remains bullish on the prospects for such a bill, given the dropped pay-fors construction. they believe that it will be passed in both chambers, and that it should be signed into law during/before May. Final term extensions are hard to handicap. Cowen thinks the Senate bill will have L-T extensions, but that these could shorten (to 1-2 years) in conference. They understand that passing the ITC/PTC is a high priority for Majority Leader Reid. One of the key developments was the consultation between parties, and with the White House. A positive ITC development should positively impact the stocks with greatest U.S. exposure, including Outperform-rated SPWR, ESLR, ENER, and STP.

Notablecalls: Great news. Too bad it's a week too late. Goes in the good to know but not actionable category.

Schering-Plough (NYSE:SGP): Reit positive stance

I very much like Schering-Plough (NYSE:SGP) here.

Why?

I may have been a bit premature in the stock yesterday as I didn't realize no fund wanted to show to their clients that they owned it. Remember, yesterday was quarter end. This is the time when performance sheets are sent to clients. Nobody wanted to look stupid.

Now this restriction is off. One may end looking pretty smart owning the stock here. I've been a buyer here.

NC

Btw, NCN Ugg said he loooooves the trade.

Lehman (NYSE:LEH): Shorts may feel a slight sting...

Couple of good comments on Lehman (NYSE:LEH) following yesterday's capital raise:

- Citigroup estimates that the capital raise will reduce gross leverage by 3 to 4 times and net leverage by almost 2 times (down to as low as 13.5x), resulting in the lowest net leverage ratio among peers. Using a conservative 8% return on the capital raised, they estimate that EPS dilution will be less than 3%.

Lehman's capital raise is efficient, as it has a conversion price in the $50 range (30-35% above current share price). Furthermore, compared to the 4 other capital raises in our coverage universe, Lehman's raise-up is unique in that it was not driven by the need to replenish capital as a result of large writedowns. Therefore, Lehman can be more opportunistic in putting its new capital to work in the near term.

They continue to see up to 70% upside in LEH shares and any potential concern around the
capital and liquidity position of the franchise should be put to rest.

- Deutsche Bank the new $3B of capital, mostly fom a few large U.S. investors, will likely be raised (in firm's view) within several hours, showing market support for LEH. They expect a conversion price premium of around 30%-35% to the stock (around $50). Firm notes they don't like the idea of earnings dilution by 1/10th forever, but the stock, their our opinion, has been trading in the past week on fears related to liquidity/capital more than EPS and this new issue should help alleviate these concerns. Reits Buy.

Notablecalls: I suspect the shorts in LEH will feel some heat in the n-t. Around a week ago I called Meredith Whitney's (OpCo) downgrade Actionable. The stock was trading close to the $50 level then. Now, at $37 I think the stock's a buy as I feel it has $2-$3 pts of upside in the n-t. Liquidity are put to bed, for now. Shorts will need to come up with more creative stuff.