Monday, March 30, 2009

Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM): Revision in the count for installed base coming? - Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank has some interesting comments regarding Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM):

Handset outlook remains challenging. Despite some recent signs of momentum, their checks continue to point to a difficult Q1 for handsets. Barring an unexpectedly strong showing from LG and Samsung, Deutsche's Q1 estimate of 243 million units may prove too high. They also see LG and Samsung continuing to make steady progress gaining on industry leader Nokia, with their combined volumes now close to 80% of Nokia’s, up from 12% seven years ago

The Storm around RIM. Firm remains highly cautious about RIM’s outlook. They think trouble in macro economy will put serious pressure on their enterprise business. They would not be surprised to see a revision in the count for installed base. Checks indicate that Bold shipments can only do so much to offset weakness of the Storm. While channel fill with Bold derivatives could prop them off for a quarter, the firm thinks its likely that they will continue their run of three consecutive quarters of disappointing earnings.

Notablecalls: This stuff does NOT read well for RIMM. It's starting to look like margins aren't their only problem. It's also the volume.

I would not be surprised to see RIMM trade down on this call.

No comments: