Monday, January 28, 2008

Early Morning Tidbits:

- Couple of firms are out with cautious comments on Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone this morning.

One of these firms is Bernstein saying that based on their channel checks and additional analysis, they now believe that of the 1.45M phones that were missing in action as of the end of the quarter, 480,000 units (excluding demo units) are in channel inventory in the 4400 non-Apple iPhone distribution outlets worldwide - or just over 8 weeks of inventory on a forward-looking basis - and about 1M are "unlocked" phones, a stunning 27% of all units sold through year end.

Firm continues to believe Apple's 10M iPhone unit sales target for 2008 is aggressive without major price cuts or new models, especially if Apple hopes to maintain the rich economics of the current iPhone business model.

The other firm has asked me to hold up posting until they can dist the call to their paying customers. But I can tell you the comments are ugly. Will post when I hear back from them.

It's starting to look the iPhone will not be the hit product everyone is expecting it to be.


Btw, I fully acknowledge it is likely too late to turn negative on AAPL stock here (down 70+ pts from the highs). So I must add that RBC Capital is out with defensive comments on the stock this morning saying analysis suggests high unlocked iPhone sales (est 25- 30%), not high channel inventory, accounts for variances between recently reported iPhone activations and Apple's 4M unit shipped (3.7M end Q1), equating to 4-6 weeks channel inventory, inline. Unlocked sales, though headache for carriers, are financially positive for Apple, and in their view bode well for global iPhone demand, and for Apple exceeding its 10M 18-mo target.

NC

2 comments:

Chris said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
iPod Your Life said...

You are quoting from analysts who are using two different target numbers

"Apple's 10M iPhone unit sales target for 2008" from Bernstein.

"Apple exceeding its 10M 18-mo target" from RBC Capital

Apple only states its target from launch to end of 2008 (in about 18 months)

Bernstein is wrong, and why can't you see it?