Monday, January 14, 2008

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): 2 +1 equals what?

Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) all controversial this AM. On one hand we have two firms out with positive comments on results but on the other hand we have news of China Mobile pulling out of iPhone talks.

- Banc of America is raising their FQ108 and F2008 ests saying they note particular strength in CPU units, clearly benefiting from the introduction of Leopard. Firm raises revenue estimate to $9.6 billion from $9.3 billion (vs. consensus of $9.4 billion) and raises EPS estimate to $1.60 from $1.52 (vs. consensus of $1.59).

Maintains Buy rating and target price of $200

- RBC Capital notes fresh data from RBC's Technology Adoption Panel (4,600 respondents) and store checks suggests Apple saw massive Mac sales in the holiday quarter (Q1/08 end Dec, reporting Jan 22), despite concerns over consumer holiday spending growth. Firm estimates 2.5M Mac were shipped Q1 (2.4M prior), up 14% Q/Q and 54% Y/Y, breaking the record 2.2M Q4.

F08 ests become $32.8B and $5.11 EPS ($32.7B and $5.08 prior). F09 ests becomes $40.6B and $6.23 EPS ($40.4B and $6.19 prior).

RBC expects MacWorld to be somewhat less dramatic than 2007's MacWorld iPhone launch. Reits Outperform and $215 tgt.

- Lastly, via Reuters: Apple Inc and China Mobile have called off talks to launch the U.S. firm's popular iPhones in China, a spokeswoman for the Chinese company said on Monday, further dashing speculation the device will hit the country's store shelves soon.

A spokeswoman for listed China Mobile, the world's largest cellular operator, said its unlisted parent of the same name had "terminated" discussions with Apple, although she would not say why.

Experts said Apple's iPhone faced a spate of technical and fee issues unique to China, including a standard revenue-sharing agreement that China Mobile disliked.

Notablecalls: So, where from here? We have AAPL trading up 2 pts early this AM. This is probably due to overall positive tone of the mkts and positive analyst chatter from BAC and RBC.

Yet, the China news does not look good. iPhone's China arrival has been considered a pretty much sure thing but now it looks like it's not.

So, my question is: Does AAPL deserve to be up 2pts this morning?


roberta said...

the stock is up due to the posiive comments and yes, it does deserve to be up 2 points because this company continues to outshine, outsell, outmaneuver, outthink, and outinnovate everyone else. they continue to widen their lead over all others and the story just keeps getting better. their name is synonymous with success.

notablecalls said...

yeah, that helps man.


notablecalls said...

Looks like IBM has decided for us. said...

Ahem! Do you really think that I Phone will not launch in China this year? Do you recognize that Apple was, and is, holding out for terms that will turn out to be profitable to shareholders. They could have done a deal if they gave up their unique profitable model.

And is it just possible that as important as a breathtaking new product at MW could be, a breathtaking market penetration and return on investment showing up at earnings is actually even better ie showing the mastery of the market,not just their product mastery?


ichiro said...

ppl expect bot from apple, and eventually get both.

Robert said...

helllloooo MacWorld?? Apple has traditionally popped before Steve's Keynote. Where have you been?