Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Calls of Note Part 1

- FBR notes they continue to recommend shares of Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) as their top growth/momentum pick and are now adding to the FBR Top Picks list. Firm notes they have seen consistent progress at both divisions throughout March; they believe that comps quarter-to-date remain in the slightly negative range (but have been positive in recent weeks) at the Urban Outfitters division and in the positive low to mid single digit range at the Anthropologie division. They believe that margins are up dramatically over last year as tight inventory control limits downside margin risk.

They believe that if the company posts positive comps in 1Q07 and beats 1Q07 earnings, the stock will continue its upward momentum. Notes the announcement of a 4.5M share sale by Chairman Dick Hayne has put pressure on the stock. Firm believes this liquidation is an isolated event and is not indicative of massive insider selling; they do not feel that he would liquidate in the face of pending bad news in today's litigious environment.

Firm is raising their FY07 estimate from $0.85 to $0.90 and FY08 estimate from $1.02 to $1.17. They believe that shares of URBN should be valued in line with a three-year EPS growth rate of 30%. FBR's $35 12-month price target values URBN at 30.0x FY08 EPS forecast of $1.17.

Notablecalls: It's fairly quiet out there this AM, so I thought to highlight it. Not actionable but good to know category.

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