Thursday, January 04, 2007

Calls of Note Part 3

- UBS comments on LAM Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) saying that while Intel has not updated its NOR flash plans, their industry research suggests if Intel upgrades its NOR flash fabs from 200mm to 300mm, Lam will likely win Intel's silicon etcher business. While Lam is unlikely to disclose customer information, channel checks found Lam's silicon etcher has better process scalability compared to Hitachi's (Intel's incumbent 200mm supplier).

They believe a 300mm NOR flash upgrade win at Intel would require 15-20 new silicon etchers at each of Intel's two existing volume production NOR flash fabs in Ireland and Israel. We estimate this could amount to $150M and $0.30 in incremental revenue and EPS for Lam.

Firm's 12-month price target is based on applying a 16x multiple to their CY08 EPS estimate of $3.95. While Lam's 1H07 shipment visibility to foundry and DRAM customers remains limited, tey view the possibility of a first ever etch win at Intel as a key 2H07 catalyst. Maintains Buy.

Notablecalls: I have never seen comments like this one move stocks. But I do like the way UBS covers the Semi and Semi Eq. space.

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