Thursday, January 11, 2007

Calls of Note Part 2

- Goldman Sachs is raising their 4Q2006 revenue, EBITDA and EPS forecasts on Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) to $2,187mn (+17% qoq), $1,345mn (61.5% margin), and $2.90 based on channel checks that indicate spending growth of 15%-20% qoq. Firm advises investors to buy Google with 20%-plus upside to their $595 year-end price target. 4Q2006 results should reinforce growth outlook and valuation, while 2007 should be a year that illuminates new growth opportunities in branded advertising, video, non-web advertising, and software services (Google apps at your domain). These new areas would be incremental to their $17.47 2008E EPS and could render firm's $595 price target conservative.

Several factors could unfold over the coming months to unlock the value they see in Google shares: 1) strong 4Q2006 results due to a solid holiday season that likely benefited from continued advertiser demand, seasonal strength in traffic, and recent product launches (including Checkout); 2) benefits from monetizing new partnerships to be launched in 2007, including eBay, MySpace, and Intuit; 3) growth from new ad formats such as display, video (via YouTube, MySpace, and proprietary sites), pay per call, and pay per acquisition; 4) new non-web based advertising deals in radio, print, and television; and 5) the introduction of premium Google apps at your domain.

Reits Buy.

Notablecalls: Note that the ests are upped merely to in-line with consensus. The chart looks strong so I suspect there will be at least a slight push upward in the pre mkt. After all, it's GSCO.

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