Thursday, January 18, 2007

Calls of Note Part 3

Raymond James is positive on InterContinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) raising their price target for the InterContinental Exchange by ~6% to $144 from $136. Earnings momentum has been very strong recently at the futures exchanges, and they believe that volume growth forecasts for the company could have meaningful upside.

The ICE's daily futures volume statistics for January to date have been extremely strong, indicating that firm's volume estimates for 2007 may well be conservative.

The ICE's January futures volumes have thus far significantly exceeded firm's expectations. Overall they see little reason to expect slower growth at the ICE in the near term, although beginning of the year volumes typically show some strength. While they continue to view the CME+BOT as the premier exchange in the futures space, ICE boasts a faster growth rate, as well as a higher return on capital, cash flow yield, and operating margin.

Firm continues to rate the ICE Outperform. With a faster growth rate than peers, synergies from the NYBOT deal (not included in their 2008 estimate), and ICE's position as a takeover candidate, the firm believes that the stock should trade at the high end of its peer range.

Notablecalls: Sure looks like GSCO's call trumped WACH's dg yesterday. The chart looks like it may make one more push higher. It's not as high conviction call as the one posted yesterday so adjust your risk accordingly.

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