Monday, December 04, 2006

Calls of Note Part 3

- UBS comments on IBM (NYSE:IBM) saying their checks thus far in 4Q06 point to sequential and y/y improvement in long-term services bookings, above initial expectations. Firm is raising their bookings estimate for 4Q06 to $13-$14B (from $12-$13B) given benefits from push-outs & some large deals.

While still early, checks also indicate hardware may benefit from pent-up demand for Series p servers as well as strength in storage & microelectronics, while software again is likely benefiting acquisitions. In services, they are still concerned about short-term trends and estimate about 3% overall bookings growth long-term.

UBS is maintaining their 4Q06 EPS estimate of $2.20 based on revenue growth 7%. 06 estimate remains $6.02 reflecting flat revenues of $91.4B. For '07 their estimate is $6.62 based on 4% revenue growth y/y. 08 EPS estimate remains $7.25 based on revenue growth of 3%.

Given some improvement in signings & progress in other segments they are raising their target modestly for IBM to $100 from $94. Notes that the shares could see some potential momentum into the January earnings report. Rating: Neutral.

Notablecalls: Not actionable but good to know category.

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