Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Calls of Note Part 3

- JP Morgan notes their checks in the channel indicate Nokia (NYSE:NOK) is pushing out orders for handset components across the Asian handset supply chain. They believe the push outs have been to suppliers of passive components and printed circuit boards (PCBs) by up to 10% of total 2Q06 units.

Following the Nokia push outs, firm's checks now indicate the top four global handset OEMs - Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and LG - (roughly 75% of 1Q06 global handset sales) are either pushing out component orders (MOT and NOK) or missing 2Q06 sales estimates (Samsung and LG). Firm believes the recent rash of negative wireless data points is indicative of either an inventory over-build or weaker than expected demand.

As a result of the Nokia push outs combined with other weakness from Motorola, LG and Samsung, they are concerned on downside risk to estimates for Nokia suppliers such as Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) (~10% of C05 sales) and RF Micro Devices (NASDAQ:RFMD) (38% of F06 sales).

Notablecalls:
The slowdown in PC segment usually preludes a slowdown in handsets. RFMD and other players with large handset leverage have already gotten hit which suggests that while there may be some additional downside in store, it's likely muted. I wouldn't be surprised to see some weakness in RFMD today, though.

- UBS comments on XM Satellite (NASDAQ:XMSR) noting Toyota and Hyundai to offer XM factory installed in 2007 model year vehicles. Discussions with new-car purchasers indicate "ah-ha" moments (being stuck in traffic, travel to remote area) when consumer realizes value of XM service, which leads to subscription. XM converts roughly 54% of trials to subscription.

XM announces 2Q subscriber numbers before the open on July 6, 2006. UBSe 403k net adds -29% q-q and -38% y-y. Firm believes they are toward the low end of consensus and we could see a relief rally over 400k. However, they remain cautious heading into the 2Q06 sub figure. Maintains Buy and $25 tgt.

Notablecalls: Not actionable but good to know category.

3 comments:

Woody said...

Sry, I am not native english speaking person.

Hence the question. What does it mean "pushing out" orders? Does it mean Nokia is canceling orders down in supply chain?

notablecalls said...

Pushing out orders does not mean they are cancelled. It means the orders are delayed beyond the initial timeline.

(Which does not mean the orders can't be cancelled further on)

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