Monday, June 19, 2006

Calls of Note Part 2

- Thomas Weisel Partners is defending NII Holdings (NASDAQ:NIHD) saying they believe that the recent sell-off has made the co even more attractive, as the shares are trading at historically low levels. Most important, they believe that operational trends at the company are strong and that upcoming events could be positive catalysts for the shares. NIHD trades at 12.8x and 8.4x our 2006 and 2007 EBITDA estimates. The shares currently trade at a relative free cash flow multiple of 17.1x 2007E and 10.5x 2008E with an estimated growth rate of 63% in 2008.

Network expansion, compelling new products and differentiated customer service continue to drive subscriber and margin growth for NII Holdings as the company increases penetration of its markets and share of wallet among current customers. Firm remain confident that management is focused on regional expansion with disciplined, profitable growth in each of the regions. They believe that management, at the company's next earnings results conference call in late July, may raise 2006 net additions guidance to be in line with or slightly ahead of TWP's 875K estimate. Sees fair value around $80 and reits Outperform.

Notablecalls: The shares are already up 10%+ from the recent bottom but I would not be surprised to see another strong day.

- Goldman expect Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) to set itself apart from the pack with at least 3%-5% comps driving potential EPS upside to current consensus. Firm's proprietary Retail Forward data shows no change in trends from last qtr when BBBY reported +6% comp, this coupled with an easier two-year comparison makes them comfortable with their penny high consensus of $0.36 vs. $0.31 ly (stock option adj) based on a +4% comp. Firm believes a solid EPS release should reverse recent overly negative sentiment surrounding the stock and drive a relief rally in the shares.

Selling at a modest 16.5x and an even cheaper 15.5x on a cash adjusted basis (ex $3.72 per share in cash on the balance sheet) despite its healthy 16% stock option adjusted EPS growth rate, they believe BBBY's stock has been hit too hard.

Notablecalls: Sure looks like the guys at Goldman are couple of days late with their call.

- Bear Stearns comments on Disney (NYSE:DIS) noting that in its second weekend, Disney/Pixar's film "Cars " generated U.S. box office receipts of about $31.2 million. Although this was good for the No. 1 spot, this represented a 47% decline from the first weekend. According to the firm, this represents a greater than usualdrop off for a Pixar film. In the past, Pixar films have show on average a 37% drop in box office in its second weekend vs. the first weekend.

"Cars " has now cumed $114.5 million domestically, pacing below Pixar's last few films including "The Incredibles, " "Finding Nemo, " "Monsters, Inc. " and "Toy Story 2, " even before factoring in ticket price inflation.

Views the slow start for "Cars " as a reason for concern, particularly so soon on the heels of Disney's $7.4 billion acquisition of Pixar. They also see this as another confirmation of our thesis that demand for CG animation is now well past its peak. As a result, they maintain Peer Perform rating on Disney.

Notablecalls: I'm surely going to watch DIS today for topping signs after a nice bounce that closed the June 12 gap.

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