Monday, June 26, 2006

Calls of Note Part 3

- Jefferies continues to be positive on POZEN (NASDAQ:POZN) saying their discussions with investigators at the American Headache Society meeting (June 22-25) confirm their thesis that the FDA's requesting of more safety information could be relatively quickly addressed (e.g., subgroup analyses). Investigators reiterate sound and robust safety data for Trexima (362 patients exposed to Trexima for 12 months vs. the FDA's requirement of 100 patients). In addition, they point out Imitrex and naproxen have been used together safely over the last 10 years and feel that the FDA's decision could have stemmed from its increasingly risk-averse stance as a result of the debacle over withdrawn Vioxx.

Reits Buy rating and $15 tgt.

Notablecalls: I highlighted RBC Capital's positive call on POZN on June 12 and the shares are up about 10% since then. I think Jefferies has a very good point and I expect the shares to keep moving up. It's definitely not a 1-2 day call, though.

- RBC Capital notes an expanding product line and improving execution are taking hold at Radware (NASDAQ:RDWR) but near term metrics remain mixed and they are reducing their estimates. Specifically, North America trends remain below plan and the firm estimate overall revenues are now tracking flat sequentially vs. most expectations of 5% sequential growth. And while they remain encouraged by new products such as the Application Switch V and improving sales initiatives in the U.S., they are lowering growth trajectory for the balance of the year.

Radware recently upgraded its management team in North America and thus far the company is making steady improvements. However, the ramp in sales is occurring at a slower than expected pace. Eexpect no change in gross margins near term at approximately 81%. Operating loss near term is expected at 1%. Balance sheet metrics remain strong and the company has over $8.50 in cash and continues to generate cash.

Tgt goes to $17 from $19. Maintains Outperform as the shares are trading at just 8x CY07 earnings estimate if one excludes the cash.

Notablecalls: Not actionable but good to know category.

- Raymond James is raising their 2Q ($2.91 to $3.01) and FY06 EPS estimates for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (NYSE:CME) due to strong average daily contract volume thus far in June. Additionally, a stronger mix of both equity trading and electronic vs. open outcry trading should result in a higher rate per contract (RPC) than we were forecasting. The Merc is also generating nice momentum already in its NYMEX volumes, which will add slightly to 2Q, but have a noticeable impact on revenues during the remainder of the year.
Maintains Outperform and $520 tgt.

Notablecalls: Note that Sandler O'Neill upped their ests on CME already on June 19. But the chart does look great.

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