Thursday, November 06, 2008

Notable Calls Network (NCN): Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS)

We caught some nice moves in Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) on Notable Calls Network (NCN) today:

- Around 7:42 AM ET this morning a top NCN member pinged me with the following snippet from LVS' 8K filing:

'..If the capital raising program is unsuccessful and the Company does not have access to the available borrowings under the U.S. senior secured credit facility, the Company would need to immediately suspend portions, if not all, of its ongoing global development projects and consider other alternatives. These factors raise a substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern..'

Knowing how sensitive the the Casinos have become to negative credit comments, I immediately distributed the snipped to all available NCN members with an added comment - 'This could potentially kill the stock'

There was ample size to be had short above the $10 level.

The stock quickly started to decline in pre mkt trading as the news of the 8K filing spread among trading desks.

Les than 15 minutes later the stock was already trading sub-$9 level and then sub-$8 level 30 minutes later.

- Around 8:25 AM ET another very knowledgeable NCN member pinged me with the following:

'..LVS sounds horrible but being told this is standard language in the 8k for Sarbanes, and could see TIER 1 to defend big soon..'

The stock was trading around $8 (or lower) and was clearly starting to find some buyers. So I distributed the comment to other NCN members as fast as I could, adding only a 'FYI ONLY' to the comment , implying it would be a somewhat risky bet.

The comment did make some sense, so I felt a heads up was in order.

The stock continued to zig-zag around the $8 level (+/- $0.50) until open when indeed we got some defenses from tier-1 firms.

The stock shot up $1+ in the first 15 minutes of trading offering a nice exit for the brave ones who had taken some long in pre mkt.

- It didn't take long for the fear (and general market weakness) to set in. The stock got crushed again over the next hours breifly hitting the low of $6.5 around noon.

- Around 1:10 PM we got word that Jefferis & Co was out defending LVS:

'..Jeff out with strong defend on LVS - particularly attractive on the recent massive sell-off. Shorter-term, we remain confident as we expect additional funds to be raised soon and news allowing vacation..'

As you can see, around $1 worth of upside was up for taking on this call. Mind you, in my humble opinion, Jeffco has one of the worst track records in the space but the call did work (for some reason). Guess people tend to forget & forgive after all :)

This is how Notable Calls Network (NCN) works - sharing the flow. We catch them every day.

Not all calls are this good (we get many wrong as well) but NCN is for the pros. You decide which calls to take and which one's to leave.

Want to be part of NCN?

It's easy. Just shoot me a brief email that includes a short description of yourself and your AOL nickname.

Please do note that contacts via IM are limited to people with:

- 3+ years of trading experience

- Access to quality research/analyst commentary

- Ability to generate and share (intraday) trading calls

I will not accept contacts from purely technically oriented traders, penny stock fans or people who have less than 3 years of experience in the field.

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