Monday, September 15, 2008

American Intl Group (NYSE:AIG): Reiterate Buy - UBS

UBS has some comments on American Intl Group (NYSE:AIG):

Press reports are that AIG is seeking $10-20B in equity from KKR, TPG, and JC Flowers, and plans to divest of ILFC and other holdings (estimates are worth$5B or >$20B including core assets). Assuming an equity raise at a depressed share price and more CDS and investment losses, they think AIG shares still seem to have upside potential. But near-term, AIG may trade down on this news and likely rating agency downgrades.

A liquidation of Lehman likely will put substantial pressure on MBS/CMBS/CDO other securities, resulting in sizable marks for AIG. Moody’s and S&P said earnings weakness could lead to a downgrade (1-to-3 notches) to AIG’s AA-minus holding company credit ratings. UBS now projects $(10)B in super-senior CDS losses (but, could be more) and $(5)B in realized inv portfolio losses in 3Q08.

Even post rating any agency downgrades, they think AIG has sufficient cash/collateral to meet
near-term liquidity/capital needs without raising equity. But, a reported $10-20B equity raise and $5-$20B in divestitures would offer a good cushion. Also, Hurricane Ike loss exposure seems manageable at $175-$475M.

Lowering 12-mo price target and EPS, but still rated Buy
a) Cutting ‘08 op and net EPS to $(2.63) and $(8.18), from $0.57 and $(2.96), largely to reflect further CDS and inv losses and an equity raise. Also reducing PT to a conservative $26 (from $41) per our P/B analysis, which assumes$10B equity raise and another $(30)B in CDS and inv losses through 1Q09.

Notablecalls: I continue to reiterate my view that AIG has ample value in the $6's.

Note that MLCO and Citi downgrade the stock to Neutral/Hold from Buy this morning.


dollar.bleeding said...

Is this still a buy at $3 ish or do you think its going down under?

notablecalls said...

its a call option here. if it gets financing it goes to 6-10