Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL); RBC comments on iPhone numbers

- RBC Capital comments on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) saying their channel checks suggest sustained iPhone momentum. Current checks at Apple and AT&T retail stores in major US cities suggests, contrary to concerns, iPhone demand/sales momentum remains steady, following the huge initial surge in iPhone sales 1st weekend of launch. Replenishments appear to have restored Apple store iPhone inventory to 90%+, and checks show AT&T stores have stock. Early activation issues appear largely resolved and returns appear to have been minimal to date.

AT&T Reported 146k Activations Q2, implying sales only slightly light to RBC's 450-500k Q3 Sell-in Estimate. AT&T reported 146k iPhone activations Q2 (June 29 and 30). However, this may not reflect Apple's true Q3 sales, as AT&T excludes iPhone buyers who experienced activation delays (up to 40% - 50% of est. buyers), as well as additional units sold but not activated until after the weekend, as well as those purchased for gifts, and non-US buyers. Incorporating these factors suggests Apple may have sold 350-450k iPhones to users the first weekend.

Given Apple will report iPhone sell-in Q3 (i.e. sell-in to AT&T, sell-through online and Apple stores), Apple may report 400-500k iPhones sold Q3 (2 days ended June 30).

They would accumulate the stock; expect Apple to resolve the connectivity/pricing issues and subsequently reinvigorate iPhone sales through new launches at attractive pricing and faster network technology; as well, they expect subsequent Mac/ iPhone momentum to overcome margin concerns.

Notablecalls: RBC's comments regarding AT&T excluding iPhone buyers who experienced activation delays from their yesterday's iPhone number make sense. I suspect these comments will generate some covering/buy interest in AAPL stock early on but I'm not entirely convinced it's enough to generate a meaninguful bounce today ahead of earnings.

5 comments:

eric said...

Curious if you have a position in AAPL or its options? Especially, after yesterday's "Short at will" comment.

notablecalls said...

I always disclose my positions.

So, no position in AAPL.

NC

Richard said...

I'll be sending a letter to sec to look into this blog and it's owner.

notablecalls said...

Richard,

I take it as a compliment :)

NC

stockmaven said...

you gotta love this guy "Richard"... did you NOT listen to NC & wanna blame it on the SEC? Dude, if you listened to NC yesterday you made quite a killing shorting the stock..I have this strange feeling you deceided to go LONG AAPL thinking NC is clueless..lol remember one thing buddy, the comments were made by CIBC & NOT NC.. don't shoot the messenger!!! -- Notable Calls you absolutely ROCK.. Keep up the GREAT work