Thursday, October 05, 2006

Calls of Note Part 4

- Jefferies is positive on Advanced Magnetics (NASDAQ:AMAG) after conducting a survey of 33 U.S.-based nephrologists to assess the market potential for AMAG's lead product ferumoxytol. Based on survey results, they revised their ferumoxytol revenue build.

Key survey results: 1) Survey respondents predicted higher- than-expected utilization of ferumoxytol across the key Stage 3 " 5 CKD patient populations. Surprisingly, respondents also predicted modest utilization in Stage 1 and 2 CKD - but we do not include this in our model; 2) Assuming both ferumoxytol (est. approval 1H08) and potential competitor Ferinject (est. approval 2H08/1H09) are commercialized in the U.S., nephrologists predicted higher ferumoxytol utilization vs. Ferinject across each and every stage of CKD, with significantly higher use anticipated in Stages 3 " 5.

Based on survey results, the firm is increasing their FY08 - FY10 ferumoxytol ests. to $34M, $99M and $192M from $24M, $79M, and $131M, respectively. FY08 - FY10 EPS ests. increase to ($0.95), $1.33 and $4.58 from ($1.17), $1.00 and $2.64, respectively.

Price tgt goes to $73 from $42.

Notablecalls: That's a hefty tgt raise. Expect AMAG to see some real buy interest following the comments. But do note the drug in question is still in Phase 3 trials. Were these to disappoint.... Just don't overstay your welcome. The data will be announced in Q406 or Q107.

1 comment:

BULL said...

You on vacation or is my system confused....dont see any 10-6-06 postings at 6:08 am est.? Know its early but you have typically posted by now