Monday, October 30, 2006

Calls of Note Part 5

Baird is positive on BioMarin Pharma (NASDAQ:BMRN) ahead of results (Nov 1), raising their tgt to $20 from $18.

This comes after surveying physicians treating patients with MPS VI.

The feedback leadsthem to believe their initial Naglazyme estimates were too low and the firm is raising their 2006 Naglazyme revenue estimate to $43.5M at the upper end of BMRN's guidance and raising 2007-2010 estimates to $69.7M, $94.4M and $119.0M and $143.7M, respectively.

In that Naglazyme's dose is weight-based, the primary catalyst for firm's upward revision is higher-than-expected patient weight. Management's original Naglazyme guidance was predicated on an assumed average patient weight of 20 kg. In speaking with a few high-volume centers between the US and Europe, they believe patient weight may exceed the assumed 20 kg average. Indeed, one large European center indicated average patient weight was 30 kg. For perspective, a 25 kg patient would bring approximately $335k in annual revenue, rather than originally modeled $270k figure.

Notes they are buyers of BMRN in front of the quarter.

Notablecalls: I would not be surprised to see some buy interest in BMRN today.

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