Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Calls of Note Part 4

- Piper Jaffray notes that recent channel checks (at several Dick's and Sports Authority locations) indicate significant sell-throughs of Under Armor (NASDAQ:UARM) football cleats. Nineteen of twenty retailers indicated that selections were very limited, particularly in the higher priced Metal line (retails at $109.99). Perhaps even more importantly, the "on field" performance of the shoe appears to be solid as only three of the twenty retailers reported returns. Fim believes the successful launch of footwear further establishes UARM as an emerging "top-tier" athletic brand.

They believe Under Armour's ability to establish a strong customer following in new categories such as golf will enable it to offset the natural seasonality associated with the company's traditional compression apparel. In addition, the company's ability to capture increased market share in the much larger loose fitting athletic apparel sector (according to NPD and SportScan the active sports apparel market is approx. $12B of which compression makes up approx. $400mm-$500mm) enables it to capture additional floor space at key retailers.

At this time, the firm is taking up their FY06 and FY07 EPS estimates from $0.70 and $0.95 to $0.72 and $0.96, respectively. In tandem with earnings adjustments, they are keeping price target intact at $38 (40x new FY07 EPS estimate of $0.96).

Notablecalls: So, there is much more sell-through than Piper originally thought but ests go up by a measly $0.01-$0.02? Also, it's the 3rd time Piper has issued positive comments on UARM but left their tgt unch'ed. That will not move the stock up.

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