Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO): Positive Holiday Themes Emerge & GTA Visibility Improves; Upgrade to OW - Piper

Piper Jaffray upgraded Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO) to Overweight from Neutral with a $18 price target (prev. $12) this morning.

According to the firm three factors lead to a more positive bias:

1) Strong 2012 Holiday Trends and Quality Theme Bode Well for Big Budget Titles in 2013. Three key industry themes have emerged this holiday. 1) Holiday is tracking better than expected. Concerns around social competition and/or console fatigue have proven overly conservative. 2) The top 5 holiday games as a group are growing. Long-tail titles are, in contrast, selling exponentially worse as game quality issues are magnified by negative reviews and social media. 3) The Xbox 360 and PS3 consoles continue to be relevant in 100 million households globally. This represents the largest active console installed base in video game history.

2) Powerful Portfolio of Titles. 2011's Modern Warfare 3 (ATVI) holds the record for biggest 5-day entertainment launch grossing $775 million globally. Piper notes they are confident that GTA V can approach and possibly break this record as their visibility around the title's technical scope and launch timing have improved. Despite being Street high, Piper's June qrtr non-GAAP revenue est. of $1b appears reasonable (Street’s $821m). TTWO's portfolio outside of GTA is the strongest it has ever been. Firm notes, NBA 2K & Borderlands 2 are exceeding estimates this holiday. They are, however, cautious around the 3/26/13 launch of Bioshock Infinite given timing and quality concerns.

3) TTWO shares have outperformed the market leading up to prior GTA launches.
Assuming a Jun-13 quarter launch, we are approximately 6 months away from GTA V shipment. Although past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance, Piper notes that in the past 3 GTA launches, TTWO shares have materially outperformed the market in the 6 months prior to shipment. Specifically, TTWO shares appreciated, on average 32% in the 6 months prior to launch in the last 3 versions, while the NASDAQ was, on average, down - 14% during the same time periods. Outperformance for TTWO vs. the market was material and consistent in each of these 3 periods (see table below) and the least amount of relative outperformance was 32 percentage points.

Raising PT to $18 Based on 12x FY13/FY14 Avg EPS. Piper notes they had previously assigned TTWO a multiple that was discounted (8x) vs. their target multiple of 12x for EA & ATVI. Based on factors discussed in this note, they believe TTWO shares deserve a multiple that is in-line with comps in the space. Firm notes better performance of top 5 titles bodes well for the sell-through prospects of GTA V. They also note an improving portfolio of titles outside of GTA are helping to "smooth" the model.

This looks like a solid call that could work over the next several months. The last similar Gaming sector call we had was this:

Gamestop (NYSE:GME): Tactical opportunity as title and hardware drought breaks; up to Buy - Goldman Sachs

Worked out just fine.

It's been a while since I've seen a positive Game publisher call. Street high target and estimates too.


otr214425 said...

Work from home theory is fast gaining popularity because of the freedom and flexibility that comes with it. Since one is not bound by fixed working hours, they can schedule their work at the time when they feel most productive and convenient to them. Women & Men benefit a lot from this concept of work since they can balance their home and work perfectly. People mostly find that in this situation, their productivity is higher and stress levels lower. Those who like isolation and a tranquil work environment also tend to prefer this way of working. Today, with the kind of communication networks available, millions of people worldwide are considering this option.

Women & Men who want to be independent but cannot afford to leave their responsibilities at home aside will benefit a lot from this concept of work. It makes it easier to maintain a healthy balance between home and work. The family doesn't get neglected and you can get your work done too. You can thus effectively juggle home responsibilities with your career. Working from home is definitely a viable option but it also needs a lot of hard work and discipline. You have to make a time schedule for yourself and stick to it. There will be a time frame of course for any job you take up and you have to fulfill that project within that time frame.

There are many things that can be done working from home. A few of them is listed below that will give you a general idea about the benefits of this concept.

This is the most common and highly preferred job that Women & Men like doing. Since in today's competitive world both the parents have to work they need a secure place to leave behind their children who will take care of them and parents can also relax without being worried all the time. In this job you don't require any degree or qualifications. You only have to know how to take care of children. Parents are happy to pay handsome salary and you can also earn a lot without putting too much of an effort.

For those who have a garden or an open space at your disposal and are also interested in gardening can go for this method of earning money. If given proper time and efforts nursery business can flourish very well and you will earn handsomely. But just as all jobs establishing it will be a bit difficult but the end results are outstanding.

Freelance can be in different wings. Either you can be a freelance reporter or a freelance photographer. You can also do designing or be in the advertising field doing project on your own. Being independent and working independently will depend on your field of work and the availability of its worth in the market. If you like doing jewellery designing you can do that at home totally independently. You can also work on freelancing as a marketing executive working from home. Wanna know more, email us on and we will send you information on how you can actually work as a marketing freelancer.

Internet related work
This is a very vast field and here sky is the limit. All you need is a computer and Internet facility. Whatever field you are into work at home is perfect match in the software field. You can match your time according to your convenience and complete whatever projects you get. To learn more about how to work from home, contact us today on workfromhome.otr214425@gmail.comand our team will get you started on some excellent work from home projects.

Diet food
Since now a days Women & Men are more conscious of the food that they eat hence they prefer to have homemade low cal food and if you can start supplying low cal food to various offices then it will be a very good source of income and not too much of efforts. You can hire a few ladies who will help you out and this can be a good business.

Thus think over this concept and go ahead.

Blogger said...

Do you need free Twitter Re-tweets?
Did you know you can get these AUTOMATICALLY AND TOTALLY FREE by registering on You Like Hits?

rokaa said...

شركات تنظيف المنازل في الدمام رخيصة
بالمقارنة مع باقي الشركات التى لا تتمتع بنفس كفاءة الرائد في العمل وفي تنظيف منازل
ونقدم ايضا لعملائنا عدة خصومات فى حالة طلب اكثر من خدمتين .
اسعار شركات تنظيف المنازل بجدةشركة-تنظيف-شقق-بالمدينة-المنورة/