Notable Calls
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Sunday, November 20, 2011
Notable Calls on Twitter
As some of you may have noticed, I haven't been that active in posting over the past couple of months. This can partly be explained by lack of substantive calls and the overall tough trading environment but Twitter does have a major part to play.http://twitter.com/#/thenotablecalls
It's just that cramming my thoughts into 140 character pings via Twitter has been so much more time effective than writing & editing long blog postings.
Oh, and I get to change my mind there!
Let me give you an example:
- Nov 17: Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) issued worse than expected results, causing the stock to drop as low as $112 (prev. close $126.09) in after hours trading. The stock rebounded to $118 after management gave it their best shot to explain away the deferred revenue & billings miss on the conference call.
- Nov 18: After shifting through the overnight analyst commentary on Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) I posted the following comments around 07:00 AM ET. The stock was trading at around $117.
$CRM - Every Tier-1 firm out defending Salesforce.com (CRM) this AM following #'s. Sell side lovefest. It's down 9pts from close. Bounce?
$CRM - DBAB's Tom Ernst PT now $205, new Street high. 'Contracting optics obscure accelerating momentum' he says.
As you can see from the chart, the stock staged a 4 pt rebound in little over an hour as traders started playing the bounce.
- 08:37 AM ET however I posted the following:
$CRM - My fav girl in the business pings me ' Check out Difucci @ JPM', she says. I'm reading it, doesn't sound so hot.
$CRM - JPM's DiFucci notes CRM saw similar billings miss going into recession of ’08/09. Mngmt sounded very bullish at the time.
$CRM - ' the only good reason is that growth declined. Guidance implies similar growth rates.' Difucci says.
Definitely a game changer there. The comments from JPMorgan's John DiFucci would almost certainly hurt the stock. (She was right as usual).
- 09:14 After reading the full analyst note in detail I added:
$CRM - 'Most troubling is that new biz grwth dclned to 12% per our calc from 42% in the JulQ after 5 straight Qs of >55% growth,' JPM says
If you look at the chart the stock never really looked back after the JPM comments declining from $120 to as low as $114 right after open. That's a potential 6 pt gain on the short side.
The beauty of it all? I got to change my mind. That's not something I would get to do in the blog. At least not with such ease.
I will keep posting on the blog as some calls still need to be expressed in more detail. But do check out the Twitter thing. It's actually fairly.. er.. cool?
http://twitter.com/#/thenotablecalls
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