Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Interpid Potash (NYSE:IPI): Short into numbers?

Coming from a seasoned hedge fund player: He is shorting Interpid Potash (NYSE:IPI) ahead of EPS report

I shorted some IPI today at 27.50.... not enough to hurt me... but just based on a hunch that this weakest player of the group comes up short tomorrow morning with earnings and poor guidance.

I hear that Farmers are planting this spring w/o applying potash and phosphate (i guess side applications will come later). Prolly too much capacity in the system already and this will not help.

AGU didn't have a barn burner of a quarter either a few days ago.... potash volumes down 83%. AGU's demand estimates were similar to POT's in April.... Potash 30-40% lower, Phosphate 25-35% lower, and 10% lower for nitrogen.

Perhaps this is already built into IPI's price.... but perhaps not with the price at a 6mo high

IPI might announce cap ex deferrals, shutdowns, etc.

Additionally... I hear IPI has a checkered past with some associations with "promoters"

Notablecalls: FYI

No comments: