Wednesday, February 25, 2009

HEICO (NYSE:HEI): Could get hit following earnings

Have a kinda of an under-the-radar play for you this morning from Stephens. HEICO (NYSE:HEI), which engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of aerospace, defense, and electronics related products reported its Q1 results last night. The results came in way below expectations.

This is what Stephens has to say about HEI today:

HEI missed our and consensus F1Q09 targets as we had feared for the past few months based on our Flight Support Group (FSG) segment organic growth correlation analysis. F1Q09 EPS from continuing operations of $0.38 (+1% yoy) was below Stephens and consensus estimates of $0.43 & $0.42, respectively. These results exclude a non-recurring $0.04 retroactive R&D tax credit benefit realized in the quarter. Sales of over $130.5 mil (-3% yoy) were below our and the consensus estimate of $143 mil. (+6% yoy). FSG sales of $99.6 mil. (-3% yoy growth and -7% organically) were well below our $110 mil. (+7.5% yoy growth) target. F09 guidance was revised downward versus consensus sales and EPS expectations. We have been concerned over the past several months about weakening commercial aerospace aftermarket trends and HEI's significant exposure as well as potential trading multiple implications for the stock. During periods of expected weakening aftermarket growth, the stock has historically traded down to 9x-12x forward EPS expectations - the stock is currently trading at ~17x current F09 estimates. We believe that the stock is currently priced for a F09 EPS target of around $1.90, near the bottom of the prior EPS guidance range.

Notablecalls: Spoke to a L-T HEICO (NYSE:HEI) watcher who said the stock could go to mid-$20s.

Note that Raymond James is out with a d/g to Mkt Perform after upgrading the stock to Outperform on Dec 18. I suggest you take a look at what the stock did following RayJay's upgrade as this will help you guys to gauge the possible downside move.

I see 10%+ downside from closing levels.

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