Monday, June 16, 2008

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Expect massive iPhone Q4/F08 shipments - RBC

Couple of firms are out with positive comments on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL):

- RBC Capital says they expect massive iPhone Q4/F08 shipments of 5.1M, up 356% Y/Y, 629% Q/Q (including est. 1.5M unit sell in to 22 countries) and 6.5M Q1/F09, up 181% Y/Y (sellthrough, channel fill to 70 countries). Q3 iPhone expected 700k (no revenue) and Q4/Q1 iPhone rev/EPS expected at $700M/$0.10 EPS and $1.1B/$0.15 (24 mo acctng).

Rising Investor Sentiment Expected. Along with rising street iPhone estimates, the firm expects Q4/Q1 iPhone results to boost investor sentiment over rising visibility to Apple's global iPhone dominance and market share. They continue to forecast 14M iPhones CY08 rising to 24M CY09, with iPhone's TAM (Total Addressable Market) handset share expected to rise from 0.3% CY07 to 1.7% CY09.

Near-term valuation pressures are expected to dissipate, as investors recalibrate around global iPhone market share gains and EPS upside. Reits Outperform and $220 tgt.

- Morgan Stanley notes that based on their recent trip to Taiwan, they believe order cuts are now complete in the notebook market whereas downside risk remains for handsets and other consumer products. Firm expects to see a solid seasonal bump in notebook shipments as battery cell supply improves and Montevina availability stimulates new product introductions this summer. They believe AAPL (notebooks 25% of profits), DELL (20% ofprofits) and STX (15% of profits) are best positioned to capture this trend in 2H08.

Notablecalls: It looks like AAPL make a s-t bottom on Friday and will enjoy some buy interest in the near term.


fun said...

I find this RBC Capital's note too softly put to create notable interest in the stock today. It's pretty much restating what they already estimated before WWDC.
And there is still a shadow over the stock in short term (Jobs' health), so I would touch the stock with caution.
Maybe it's just me, but I can't see a big catalyst in coming few days (unless the market rallies).

Win said...

NC - I guess fun was wrong, but I don't think it was because of the call. Rather, the call and the rise were both caused by the same third reason.

AAPL had lots of 170, 175 and 180 calls outstanding (June Calls). It had to rise into expiration.

When my trading desk is looking at losing money, I call the analysts and ask them to put out a new call - or rehash an old one. Doesn't matter if there's anything new. Watch - we may just have another call tomorrow.

fun said...

win, Apple was kind of tricky yesterday. I am not saying if I was right or wrong on interpreting RBC's note. Sure, it was possible to scalp the spike at market open (but did you?). If you take a look at the chart, the stock did show considerable weakness in the morning. Later, there was a chatter that Apple will officially contradict the concerns about Jobs health. At least a lot of market participants attributed the recovery to this, and I have no reason to disagree. This is actually what I tried to point out in the morning -- don't be too keen on the stock until this issue is clear.

(11:30 AAPL Apple: Market chatter circulating that AAPL will make a formal announcement to dispel rumors of Job's health and reiterate growth targets
A rumor circulated today that Apple would make a formal announcement dispelling any negative rumors regarding Job's health and the stock quickly went positive.)

The HardHead Fund said...

MS bump'n up Apple today to $210 while I foresee $300 Jan 08.

Lehman analyst Tim Luke points out in a note today, new data from market research firm NPD shows Mac unit sales grew 50% on a year-over-year.

Also, someone else is thinking $300!

Visit an Apple store and take notice!