After selling off 14% yesterday, and 45% over the past six weeks, the firm believes DRYS shares are extremely oversold given the current strength in dry bulk shipping charter rates, expectations for dry bulk shipping charter rates to strengthen further in 2008, and an improving outlook for the dry bulk shipping market in 2009. In fact, DRYS shares now trade at 3.6 times 2008E EPS, 3.1 times 2008E CFPS, and 3.9 times 2008E EV/EBITDA. With dry bulk shipping charter rates likely to increase further next year, they believe their current estimates could actually prove conservative. Although the firm would have preferred for DryShips to utilize it's surplus cash flow to either acquire additional dry bulk vessels, pay down debt, repurchase shares, and/or increase the Company's dividend payments, nonetheless, DryShips still has the most operating leverage to the attractive dry bulk shipping market. As a result, the firm reiterates their Buy rating and their 12-month price target of $160 per share.
Notablecalls: I can't believe the stock was DOWN yesterday on heels of the Ocean Rig deal. After all, it's accreditive to 2008 EPS! The deal is so good George Economou, the CEO & Chairman of DRYS himself took a 4.4 percent stake in Ocean. The guy bet his own dinero!
Also, check out the conviction of Douglas J. Mavrinac, Jeffco's Martime Group Head as he stands by his Buy rating with a whopping $160 price tgt. This is a $70 stock! And it's not a biotech! This call is bound to generate buy interest. This ought to be a $80+ stock today.
When DRYS takes off, keep an eye on the other Dry Bulk names: EXM, GNK, TBSI, DSX and EGLE.
(Did I just sound like Cramer?!)
Booyah :) Also keep an eye on solar, Lehman reits and upped price targets on JASO, WFR, and STP by 20-30 bucks...
ReplyDeleteTim,
ReplyDeleteI think Leh's late with their solar call today. At least in the s-t.
I agree. My line of thought is that there are other analysts in the neutral camp (or with low price targets...don't have data on that though) who will also be late if they upgrade. Then you have portfolio managers who not only want to add winners for window dressing, but "green companies" as well. Could tack on a few bucks coming into year end.
ReplyDelete-Tim
Not to mention not a lick of sub-prime exposure. Estimates next year are in the range of $20/share, which isn't the same growth as 2006 to 2007, is still over 100%. A forward PE of <4 is ridiculously low, and will have to get noticed by the big guns after Jan 1.
ReplyDeleteI've been bullish on the Dry Bulk for a while, especially DSX. But the Dry Bulk Shipping stocks just keep falling several % every day, almost for 2 weeks now. What gives?
ReplyDeleteWell, the blog doesn't mention the slowdowns in US and Europe in '08which will effect China. This could push down demand for shipping. Also there is a current slump in charter rates. The smart money knows about this, and it is probably the reason shipping stocks are down.
ReplyDelete