Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Color on iPhone cuts

- Goldman Sachs notes that after the Street's reset of overly optimistic iPhone estimates for calendar 2007 last week post Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) earnings, they view downward adjustments to Apple's build plan as backward looking. Firm's supply chain checks suggest that Apple has pulled down its build plan for iPhone but, while the magnitude is imprecise, the numbers that we are hearing still leave upside possibilities to GSCO's 2.8 million estimate for 2007. With Apple in the midst of a series of major product cycles, recent history has shown that pullbacks in the stock such as we have been seeing in the last few days are exactly the sorts of buying opportunities that investors should be taking advantage of.

Important to bear in mind is that what is going on with the supply chain now follows a well-established pattern for Apple that the firm has seen play out several times already with iPod, in each instance not a good indicator of actual demand. Specifically, in front of a new product launch, Apple secures initial manufacturing capacity for a larger number of units than it will ultimately need and then adjusts capacity downward to more realistic levels over time. The supply chain cuts taking place now for iPhone bring the build plan more in line with firm's current sell-out expectations.

GSCO continues to see multiple upside opportunities for Apple.

Notablecalls: AAPL took a hit yesterday on rumors of iPhone production being cut. Goldman gives us the scoop. Looks like a non-event. Note that AAPL is up 1.5% this AM as Citigroup is taking their rating to Buy from Hold following yesterday's $10 pullback saying iPhone and iPod production cuts should not be a surprise, saying iPod production cuts reflect normal channel inventory clearance ahead of Aug/Sep new price product intros.

Two firms out with positive comments and the stock is up a platry 1.5%. To me this is a tell. A negative one.

1 comment:

Scott Felsenthal said...
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