Monday, April 02, 2007

Calls of Note Part 4

- FBR notes Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) filed their 2006 10- K last Friday afternoon indicating that "Thus far during fiscal 2008 (calendar 2007), total company comparable store sales are positive."

Firm expects positive reaction to this data point as investors realize that 1Q07 could be the first consolidated positive comp quarter since 4Q05 for the company. They further point out that the company has yet to benefit materially from the spring break selling that is to occur over the next two weekends. Firm maintains belief that positive momentum will continue and that the turnaround at both divisions will strengthen throughout the year. They are raising their 1Q07 comp from flat to +1%, but it does not impact EPS estimates. FBR currently has a $35 12 month price target. They believe that shares of URBN should be valued in line with a three-year EPS growth rate of 30%. O

Firm notes that Chairman and CEO Dick Hayne sold 4.5M shares recently (approximately 9% of his position). Mr. Hayne owns over 43M shares following the liquidation and still owns over 25% of the company. They do not feel that he would liquidate in the face of pending bad news in today's litigious environment. They also noted a 120,000 share registration to sell by CFO John Kyees. Firm continues to feel that the improving fundamentals of URBN's turnaround outweigh any the negative implications of these insider transactions.

Notablecalls: FBR was out positive on URBN last week (See archives) and looks like they were right. Do check out the intraday chart on URBN from Friday, as it seems there was some buy interest in the name after the 10K was filed.

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