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Thursday, September 07, 2006

Calls of Note Part 6

- CIBC is cutting their 3Q06 estimate for Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) due to August equity
volumes that failed to buoy a particularly weak quarter within the global equity markets. Firm is reducing their 3Q to $3.07 from $3.55 (consensus $3.03). 4Q06 and fiscal 2007 estimates remain unchanged.

Of little surprise, debt volumes during the third fiscal quarter were seasonally weak, however, this quarter will be the tough year on year comparison from last year when many second quarter deals were pushed into the third quarter resulting in uncharacteristic third quarter strength.

Of a slightly greater surprise was the lack of resiliency of the equity underwriting calendar despite solid and broad based indices gains and benign credit spreads.

Firm notes they remain bullish on the brokerage stocks and particularly on GS stock. They
believe the brokers are poised for an outsized fourth quarter (in part due to the timing shift from the third quarter) as liquidity trends are staunchly positioned to favor this group.

Notablecalls: Not actionable but good to know category.

- Citigroup notes Nike's (NYSE:NKE) stock has recovered somewhat from its lows in Aug, however the stock is still down 5.8% and has underperformed the S&P 500 8% year to date. Concerns weighing on the stock include a possible slowdown for its U.S. footwear business as one laps difficult comps and a possible shift away from marquee footwear, continued sluggish growth in Japan and Europe, expected flat gross margins during FY07, and higher inventories.
Firm thinks these concerns are already priced in, eradicating much of the downside risk. But the stock could continue to be sluggish in the short-term.

They think Nike is an extremely attractive long term investment and the stock remains undervalued at 13.5x, which is a 21% discount to its three yr avg. Firm believes Nike will meet consensus EPS of $1.42 when it reports its earnings on Sept 21 (tentative). However, uncertainty surrounding the first quarter will likely result in a tight trading range over the short term.

Maintains Buy and $104 tgt.

Notablecalls: Not actionable but good to know category. I like NKE short as a swing trade. The co reports on Sept 21 and I don't think investors want to be long the stock going into the announcement. Also, notice the 200 MA level the shares have been hugging against. That'd be your stop.

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