- Citigroup's Semiconductor Equipment team follows up their TSMC pushouts note saying it appears these pushouts represent ~10% of Applied Material (NASDAQ:AMAT)'s FQ3:06 shipments. This suggests FQ4:06 (Oct) revs will be hit ~6-7% (adjusting for svc and FPD (which, they note, is also weaker)).
Checks also confirm LRCX's ~100% IBM etch share at 90nm now 75% (at best) at 65nm due to TEL, consistent with firm's view of intensifying competition for LRCX with potential implications at partners (CHRT, AMD, Samsung, Toshiba).
TSMC pushouts an impt first step to curb overcapacity, but they feel it's still too early to take a more broadly + view pending more broad pushouts/capitulation.
Notablecalls: 6-7% hit to revs sounds pretty serious. Expect some more weakness in the Semi/Semi Equipment space.
- Citigroup says they have analyzed the recent IMS Health weekly total prescription trends and conclude that CV Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CVTX)' Ranexa is off to a slower-than-anticipated launch. Based on discussions with physicians, they believe that this is due to the drug's high price, modest benefit, and low awareness.
Reduces FY2007 Ranexa sales estimates from $169 million to $74 million to account for this trend. Since they do not see any meaningful catalysts to drive appreciation in the stock until release of data from the MERLIN study in early 2007, the firm expects that the stock will remain weak over the near-term and will be volatile in $10-$16 range. Reduces target price from $27 to $16. Maintains Hold.
Notablecalls: Looking at the chart I must say I think Citi is terribly late with their call. Piper Jaffray downgraded the shares and lowered their tgt to $13 already on June 15.
- Bear Stearns notes that following a 10%-25% selloff in the peer group since May 1, Powerwave's acquisition of Filtronic's filter and power amplifier divisions, and ADC Telecom's pending acquisition of Andrew, GrenTech (NASDAQ:GRRF) is still trading at a significant (20%-50%) discount to local and global industry peers on a 2006E P/E basis.
GrenTech is exposed to China 3G licensing in both of its markets (wireless coverage and RF modules), both of which will expand dramatically when licenses are issued. Firm maintains their view that China's 3G licenses will be issued in 1H07, after the completion of China's TD-SCDMA commercial network trials. Adjusts 06/07 EPS estimates to reflect the view.
Firm's YE2006 tgt of $19.80 implies a 2007E P/E of 13.3x. Estimates GrenTech's current net cash per share at $2.25. Maintains Outperform.
Notablecalls: I think this one could prove to be a runner if it can break the $12-$12.5 level.
Checks also confirm LRCX's ~100% IBM etch share at 90nm now 75% (at best) at 65nm due to TEL, consistent with firm's view of intensifying competition for LRCX with potential implications at partners (CHRT, AMD, Samsung, Toshiba).
TSMC pushouts an impt first step to curb overcapacity, but they feel it's still too early to take a more broadly + view pending more broad pushouts/capitulation.
Notablecalls: 6-7% hit to revs sounds pretty serious. Expect some more weakness in the Semi/Semi Equipment space.
- Citigroup says they have analyzed the recent IMS Health weekly total prescription trends and conclude that CV Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CVTX)' Ranexa is off to a slower-than-anticipated launch. Based on discussions with physicians, they believe that this is due to the drug's high price, modest benefit, and low awareness.
Reduces FY2007 Ranexa sales estimates from $169 million to $74 million to account for this trend. Since they do not see any meaningful catalysts to drive appreciation in the stock until release of data from the MERLIN study in early 2007, the firm expects that the stock will remain weak over the near-term and will be volatile in $10-$16 range. Reduces target price from $27 to $16. Maintains Hold.
Notablecalls: Looking at the chart I must say I think Citi is terribly late with their call. Piper Jaffray downgraded the shares and lowered their tgt to $13 already on June 15.
- Bear Stearns notes that following a 10%-25% selloff in the peer group since May 1, Powerwave's acquisition of Filtronic's filter and power amplifier divisions, and ADC Telecom's pending acquisition of Andrew, GrenTech (NASDAQ:GRRF) is still trading at a significant (20%-50%) discount to local and global industry peers on a 2006E P/E basis.
GrenTech is exposed to China 3G licensing in both of its markets (wireless coverage and RF modules), both of which will expand dramatically when licenses are issued. Firm maintains their view that China's 3G licenses will be issued in 1H07, after the completion of China's TD-SCDMA commercial network trials. Adjusts 06/07 EPS estimates to reflect the view.
Firm's YE2006 tgt of $19.80 implies a 2007E P/E of 13.3x. Estimates GrenTech's current net cash per share at $2.25. Maintains Outperform.
Notablecalls: I think this one could prove to be a runner if it can break the $12-$12.5 level.
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