- Banc of America notes their channel checks indicate that several of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (NYSE:TSM) top customers are pulling down second half 2006 wafer start forecasts and/or pushing out starts. Firm is cutting our estimates to reflect a more modest seasonal build in the second half of 2006.
The big question is whether these modest cuts morph into a more serious problem. Inventory trends and second half demand will be the key data points to monitor. The breadth of the adjustments across the customer base does suggest a trend. Firm's FY06 revenue estimate is cut from $10.1 to $9.8 billion.
Checks suggest that TSM has pushed out AMAT's CMP tools for Fab 14 (300mm) from 4QFY06 to 1QFY07. Firm expects the rest of the process tool push-outs (PVD, CVD, etc) to follow suit
Notablecalls: This should not come as a surprise to Semi bears. However it is likely a surprise for the bulls...
- Citigroup says their checks suggest Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (NYSE:TSM) has begun to push out tool deliveries with a large portion of 300mm tool shipments in backlog scheduled for July-Oct now pushed out by ~1Q. At this point, pushouts appear limited to 300mm w/200mm on-track. This is a change from checks conducted late last week indicating no industry pushouts had occurred. At this point, Taiwan pushouts appear limited to TSMC as UMC + 2nd tier Taiwan DRAM customers remain on-track. TSMC exposure greatest at AMAT, AEIS (derivative), LRCX, MTSN, NVLS.
According to the firm, while memory spending remains strong, pushouts from TSMC weakens the argument for a tool order re-acceleration in 2H:06.
Notablecalls: This should not come as a surprise to Semi bears. However it is likely a surprise for the bulls. I think the Semi bounce stops here.
The big question is whether these modest cuts morph into a more serious problem. Inventory trends and second half demand will be the key data points to monitor. The breadth of the adjustments across the customer base does suggest a trend. Firm's FY06 revenue estimate is cut from $10.1 to $9.8 billion.
Checks suggest that TSM has pushed out AMAT's CMP tools for Fab 14 (300mm) from 4QFY06 to 1QFY07. Firm expects the rest of the process tool push-outs (PVD, CVD, etc) to follow suit
Notablecalls: This should not come as a surprise to Semi bears. However it is likely a surprise for the bulls...
- Citigroup says their checks suggest Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (NYSE:TSM) has begun to push out tool deliveries with a large portion of 300mm tool shipments in backlog scheduled for July-Oct now pushed out by ~1Q. At this point, pushouts appear limited to 300mm w/200mm on-track. This is a change from checks conducted late last week indicating no industry pushouts had occurred. At this point, Taiwan pushouts appear limited to TSMC as UMC + 2nd tier Taiwan DRAM customers remain on-track. TSMC exposure greatest at AMAT, AEIS (derivative), LRCX, MTSN, NVLS.
According to the firm, while memory spending remains strong, pushouts from TSMC weakens the argument for a tool order re-acceleration in 2H:06.
Notablecalls: This should not come as a surprise to Semi bears. However it is likely a surprise for the bulls. I think the Semi bounce stops here.
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