Oppenheimer is out with an upgrade on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to Outperform ($135 tgt) from Sector Perform following yesterday's disclosures about Jobs' health. While the letters from Jobs and Apple's board raise more questions than they answer, they allay the central concern they raised two weeks ago: the risk of a hasty, unplanned leadership change.
Firm notes they don't know what ails Apple's CEO, and they're not ready to assume that a problem with a "relatively simple and straightforward" remedy is a problem that is itself "simple and straightforward." Still, it seems unlikely that Jobs, the board, and its counsel would disclose the prognosis of a six-month recovery if it were at odds with doctors' expectations. While that is no guarantee, they are satisfied that a sudden change of leadership is not imminent.
In short, while the leadership risk is not eliminated, it has become less acute and allows them, following this note, to refocus on the heart of the Apple story: the Mac share gains, the iPhone revolution, the cash in the bank and the cash that's still flowin.
Notablecalls: So you know it's out there. Remember how Opco downgraded the stock on Dec 17? Well, the stock is now higher when they downgraded it. I know it pays to be flexible and I really have respect for analysts that have the ability to quickly change their mind when proven wrong.
Still, leaves a bad taste in your mouth, doesn't it?
This upgrade is the one you need to fade.
Also note there's a story in LA Times saying Jobs' hormone imbalance could be caused by a tumor.
Yeah, fade anywhere above $96.70 (I see it trading there this AM)
PS: BMO making negative trading call on AAPL.....thinks company will guide March quarter revenues in the range of $7.1B-$7.5B and EPS to a range of $0.75-$0.85.....street at $8.4B/$1.15....."we believe the magnitude between March quarter guidance and current Street estimates is likely to pressure the shares near term"...they lower FY09 EPS estimate to $4.60 from $5.11
NC: My question now is - Will AAPL see red today?
Firm notes they don't know what ails Apple's CEO, and they're not ready to assume that a problem with a "relatively simple and straightforward" remedy is a problem that is itself "simple and straightforward." Still, it seems unlikely that Jobs, the board, and its counsel would disclose the prognosis of a six-month recovery if it were at odds with doctors' expectations. While that is no guarantee, they are satisfied that a sudden change of leadership is not imminent.
In short, while the leadership risk is not eliminated, it has become less acute and allows them, following this note, to refocus on the heart of the Apple story: the Mac share gains, the iPhone revolution, the cash in the bank and the cash that's still flowin.
Notablecalls: So you know it's out there. Remember how Opco downgraded the stock on Dec 17? Well, the stock is now higher when they downgraded it. I know it pays to be flexible and I really have respect for analysts that have the ability to quickly change their mind when proven wrong.
Still, leaves a bad taste in your mouth, doesn't it?
This upgrade is the one you need to fade.
Also note there's a story in LA Times saying Jobs' hormone imbalance could be caused by a tumor.
Yeah, fade anywhere above $96.70 (I see it trading there this AM)
PS: BMO making negative trading call on AAPL.....thinks company will guide March quarter revenues in the range of $7.1B-$7.5B and EPS to a range of $0.75-$0.85.....street at $8.4B/$1.15....."we believe the magnitude between March quarter guidance and current Street estimates is likely to pressure the shares near term"...they lower FY09 EPS estimate to $4.60 from $5.11
NC: My question now is - Will AAPL see red today?
6 comments:
MacWorld keynote is today as well...doubtful that any big products will be debuted other than a new macbook pro. Stock might rise into keynote and there's the fade oppy as well.
these games are dead.
"NC: My question now is - Will AAPL see red today?"
Tommo: My question now is - will NC ever get a grip on reality. Funny how the admins can't take any snide remarks in retort to their shallow comments on the stock and their twisting of an upgrade effectively into a downgrade
Tommo, I imagine youre still gripping to your AAPL @ $160?
Good luck with that.
The rest of us, who managed to short AAPL pre-mkt made some nice moolah.
Come back to papa when AAPL is $160 again. Otherwise just keep grinding your teeth.
Thanks.
Expectations for MacWorld were again BLAH BLAH BLAH. As a great believer in Apple the last 3 years... I have now seen the "LIGHT" as Jobs should see and RETIRE!
Apple has been a great disappointment for me especially the last 18 months releasing no major products - except HOT AIR!
The company has lost touch with its shareholders. It is time for Steve to go and hire ME!
HH
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