No kidding. I read the GE report as a massive tell to Q1 numbers, and went all in short Monday. Bailed at noon today, realizing the tape was running me over. Ugh. Missed a huge move.
We're near a short term top. The S&P won't break 1400. Many are trying to call a bottom. But the news leading to these big up days is still mediocre at best. 2 or 3 more days of pain if you're short.
How about a double wammie --real estate and the stock market. Sub prime has crush what I do for a real living,helping buyers and seller with their home purchase. I have never seen a more awful market in r/e and the cause & effect it has on the stock market. I was not one who thought this funny money financing was good. I actually said 4 years ago we are in for trouble ahead . Little did I see the entire world economy would be effected. I am not a mega broker just a guy who made a nice living but that was well over a year ago. Take a break you better ,I can not must get ready for a stock picking career. I pick mine from the bottom of a beer bottle -doing ok and quenches my thirst. While on your break try finding some new ideas where I do !!!! Cheers, DuffBeer
Your comments have made me good money in the past year. In bull markets they have especially produced exceptional trades. The tape is tough but your calls remain insightful.
I'm all in now, started buying/repositioning for long term in mid-March when bull/bear ratio (my favorite bottom indicator) went screaming negative. It's still negative, I think this rally has lots to go.
Feel the financials have bottomed. The sign I see is that subprime defaults have flattened finally. Prime and HELOC have a ways to go, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. A lot of the trouble to come will be company dependent and not systemic, we can sort out the winners (WFC, GS) from the losers (MER, WM) now.
Finally, now that we're on an uptrend, we should start getting bounces again, for months there were virtually none.
I spent a lot of January in Key West, my wife and babies were there for the whole month. That's the great time to go, escape the Buffalo winter and not get burnt to a crisp by the sun. Anyways, if you feel wiped out, take time out and enjoy yourself.
Tough tape. No doubt. Even seasonal trades like the refiners aren't working...yet. Uncharted territory just makes navigating that much harder. Made you bones here a long time ago so keep it up. love the calls.
Mercurio, I think that your vision here is so very great, that perhaps you should start your own blog.. Get lost, dude NC, keep up the GREAT work, and go get yourself some rest.. would ya pleez?
im an amateur trader and i have to tell you, the gains ive made in the market never made me a better trader..sometimes, even counter-productive. they just confirm that i "knew" why the stock moved the way it did. now, when i get burned, SCHOOL is in session.
NC - i've been reading your comments for a long time and noticed that most of your trades are trying to catch the bottom on stocks of solid companies that are getting knocked down hard for some reason or the other.
Those trades just haven't been working this year.
We are in a "sell the rally" enviroment not a "Buy the dip" enviroment.
Remember, just the fact that you are thinking about giving up means the bottom is pretty close. I would take a week off and give it another try.
Vermont Trader .. you hit the nail right on the head!! I read NC's blog since long time and it was great but lately its mostly bouce calls, which are not working out obviusly.. Nevertheless, NC's blog is great and work is really appreciated!!
Oops.. Forgot to adress the market though, I think NC you deserve a break.. Its not just you... lots of us have lost trades lately.. I would just wait and see the direction the market is going to take in the next one or two weeks.. Cheers..
I would not say it is not working. After your comment/post about your state of mind; I went back and checked. I must say within this month itself, I made 10% based purely on your calls ( not just actionable ones though).
You have been good and consistent in spotting opportunities but I guess somewhere you way of thinking about opportunities is not matching...a la midas touch...
Never hurts to take a weekend break.You don;t require more than that to be back in business..you are good man
21 comments:
i don't understand it and all my bets seem to be going wrong. it would seem i agree...
Volatility is at its best.
Take a rest!
Or do not.
No kidding. I read the GE report as a massive tell to Q1 numbers, and went all in short Monday. Bailed at noon today, realizing the tape was running me over. Ugh. Missed a huge move.
Nice blog btw, keep up the good work.
We're near a short term top. The S&P won't break 1400. Many are trying to call a bottom. But the news leading to these big up days is still mediocre at best. 2 or 3 more days of pain if you're short.
yeah, great calls man. i got crushed over the past week, but am looking to make it back this week. stick with it!
How about a double wammie --real estate and the stock market. Sub prime has crush what I do for a real living,helping buyers and seller with their home purchase. I have never seen a more awful market in r/e and the cause & effect it has on the stock market. I was not one who thought this funny money financing was good. I actually said 4 years ago we are in for trouble ahead . Little did I see the entire world economy would be effected. I am not a mega broker just a guy who made a nice living but that was well over a year ago.
Take a break you better ,I can not must get ready for a stock picking career.
I pick mine from the bottom of a beer bottle -doing ok and quenches my thirst.
While on your break try finding some new ideas where I do !!!!
Cheers, DuffBeer
Just follow the earnings fellas... it's not that hard.
Your comments have made me good money in the past year. In bull markets they have especially produced exceptional trades. The tape is tough but your calls remain insightful.
I'm all in now, started buying/repositioning for long term in mid-March when bull/bear ratio (my favorite bottom indicator) went screaming negative. It's still negative, I think this rally has lots to go.
Feel the financials have bottomed. The sign I see is that subprime defaults have flattened finally. Prime and HELOC have a ways to go, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. A lot of the trouble to come will be company dependent and not systemic, we can sort out the winners (WFC, GS) from the losers (MER, WM) now.
Finally, now that we're on an uptrend, we should start getting bounces again, for months there were virtually none.
I spent a lot of January in Key West, my wife and babies were there for the whole month. That's the great time to go, escape the Buffalo winter and not get burnt to a crisp by the sun. Anyways, if you feel wiped out, take time out and enjoy yourself.
You got smoked in SIGM!!! BUA HA HA HA HA. FOOLISH FOOL!
Tough tape. No doubt. Even seasonal trades like the refiners aren't working...yet. Uncharted territory just makes navigating that much harder. Made you bones here a long time ago so keep it up. love the calls.
mercurio,
get lost.
Mercurio,
I think that your vision here is so very great, that perhaps you should start your own blog..
Get lost, dude
NC, keep up the GREAT work, and go get yourself some rest.. would ya pleez?
im an amateur trader and i have to tell you, the gains ive made in the market never made me a better trader..sometimes, even counter-productive. they just confirm that i "knew" why the stock moved the way it did. now, when i get burned, SCHOOL is in session.
NC - i've been reading your comments for a long time and noticed that most of your trades are trying to catch the bottom on stocks of solid companies that are getting knocked down hard for some reason or the other.
Those trades just haven't been working this year.
We are in a "sell the rally" enviroment not a "Buy the dip" enviroment.
Remember, just the fact that you are thinking about giving up means the bottom is pretty close. I would take a week off and give it another try.
Yep, it is just you.
I'm never wrong - Ha!
You are better than Cramer!
Keep up the good work!
HH
Vermont Trader .. you hit the nail right on the head!! I read NC's blog since long time and it was great but lately its mostly bouce calls, which are not working out obviusly.. Nevertheless, NC's blog is great and work is really appreciated!!
Cheers..
Oops.. Forgot to adress the market though, I think NC you deserve a break.. Its not just you... lots of us have lost trades lately.. I would just wait and see the direction the market is going to take in the next one or two weeks.. Cheers..
I would not say it is not working. After your comment/post about your state of mind; I went back and checked. I must say within this month itself, I made 10% based purely on your calls ( not just actionable ones though).
You have been good and consistent in spotting opportunities but I guess somewhere you way of thinking about opportunities is not matching...a la midas touch...
Never hurts to take a weekend break.You don;t require more than that to be back in business..you are good man
Thanks for the feedback.
NC
A good solar a day makes the bad market go away
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